Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?

The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:

  1. We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
  2. About % of the population will have had the virus.
  3. The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).

In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?

Name Cases New cases yesterday Population Need to be infected Time needed
Afghanistan 117,158 1,407 38,928,346 27,249,842 52 years
Albania 132,513 1 2,877,797 2,014,457 5,264 years
Algeria 138,840 375 43,851,044 30,695,730 223 years
Andorra 13,882 0 77,265 54,085 ∞
Angola 38,613 57 32,866,272 23,006,390 1,104 years
Anguilla 109 0 15,003 10,502 ∞
Antigua and Barbuda 1,263 0 97,929 68,550 ∞
Argentina 4,423,636 18,389 45,195,774 31,637,041 4 years
Armenia 224,851 54 2,963,243 2,074,270 97 years
Aruba 11,132 1 106,766 74,736 183 years
Australia 30,529 30 25,499,884 17,849,918 1,628 years
Austria 650,324 63 9,006,398 6,304,478 254 years
Azerbaijan 335,874 38 10,139,177 7,097,423 494 years
Bahamas 12,467 0 393,244 275,270 ∞
Bahrain 265,477 230 1,701,575 1,191,102 11 years
Bangladesh 896,770 8,364 164,689,383 115,282,568 37 years
Barbados 4,077 2 287,375 201,162 271 years
Belarus 415,780 441 9,449,323 6,614,526 39 years
Belgium 1,083,384 92 11,589,623 8,112,736 219 years
Belize 13,189 52 397,628 278,339 14 years
Benin 8,170 0 12,123,200 8,486,240 ∞
Bermuda 2,510 0 62,278 43,594 ∞
Bhutan 2,062 10 771,608 540,125 147 years
Bolivia 433,935 922 11,673,021 8,171,114 23 years
Bosnia 204,991 7 3,280,819 2,296,573 842 years
Botswana 69,680 2,188 2,351,627 1,646,138 24 months
Brazil 18,448,402 27,804 212,559,417 148,791,591 13 years
British Virgin Islands 298 0 30,231 21,161 ∞
Brunei 259 0 437,479 306,235 ∞
Bulgaria 421,646 115 6,948,445 4,863,911 108 years
Burkina Faso 13,479 1 20,903,273 14,632,291 40,062 years
Burundi 5,423 75 11,890,784 8,323,548 303 years
Cabo Verde 32,399 27 555,987 389,190 37 years
Cambodia 48,532 883 16,718,965 11,703,275 36 years
Cameroon 80,487 0 26,545,863 18,582,104 ∞
Canada 1,414,134 931 37,742,154 26,419,507 74 years
Cayman Islands 614 5 65,722 46,005 24 years
Central African Republic 7,141 2 4,829,767 3,380,836 4,624 years
Chad 4,951 0 16,425,864 11,498,104 ∞
Chile 1,551,137 4,034 19,116,201 13,381,340 8 years
China 91,753 21 1,439,323,776 1,007,526,643 131,436 years
Colombia 4,187,194 28,478 50,882,891 35,618,023 38 months
Comoros 3,912 0 869,601 608,720 ∞
Congo 12,485 0 5,518,087 3,862,660 ∞
Costa Rica 364,304 792 5,094,118 3,565,882 11 years
Côte d'Ivoire 48,203 11 26,378,274 18,464,791 4,590 years
Croatia 359,666 14 4,105,267 2,873,686 513 years
Cuba 184,943 2,589 11,326,616 7,928,631 8 years
Curaçao 12,332 2 164,093 114,865 145 years
Cyprus 75,099 314 1,207,359 845,151 6 years
Czechia 1,666,958 56 10,708,981 7,496,286 309 years
Denmark 293,094 151 5,792,202 4,054,541 69 years
Dominica 193 0 71,986 50,390 ∞
Dominican Republic 323,650 872 10,847,910 7,593,537 23 years
DRC 40,439 185 89,561,403 62,692,982 928 years
Ecuador 455,743 1,407 17,643,054 12,350,137 23 years
Egypt 280,770 376 102,334,404 71,634,082 520 years
El Salvador 78,766 194 6,486,205 4,540,343 63 years
Equatorial Guinea 8,723 0 1,402,985 982,089 ∞
Eritrea 5,884 104 3,546,421 2,482,494 65 years
Estonia 130,981 13 1,326,535 928,574 176 years
Ethiopia 275,974 39 114,963,588 80,474,511 5,639 years
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 63 0 3,480 2,436 ∞
Faroe Islands 772 0 48,863 34,204 ∞
Fiji 3,832 241 896,445 627,511 7 years
Finland 95,168 84 5,540,720 3,878,504 124 years
France 5,770,530 509 65,273,511 45,691,457 224 years
French Guiana 27,318 32 298,682 209,077 16 years
French Polynesia 19,003 9 280,908 196,635 55 years
Gabon 24,984 0 2,225,734 1,558,013 ∞
Gambia 6,069 0 2,416,668 1,691,667 ∞
Georgia 363,874 352 3,989,167 2,792,416 19 years
Germany 3,734,812 340 83,783,942 58,648,759 451 years
Ghana 95,476 107 31,072,940 21,751,058 555 years
Gibraltar 4,346 1 33,691 23,583 56 years
Greece 421,266 361 10,423,054 7,296,137 53 years
Greenland 50 0 56,770 39,739 ∞
Grenada 161 0 112,523 78,766 ∞
Guadeloupe 16,881 0 400,124 280,086 ∞
Guatemala 291,977 382 17,915,568 12,540,897 88 years
Guinea 23,744 52 13,132,795 9,192,956 483 years
Guinea-Bissau 3,846 0 1,968,001 1,377,600 ∞
Guyana 19,891 14 786,552 550,586 105 years
Haiti 18,460 119 11,402,528 7,981,769 183 years
Holy See (Vatican City State) 27 0 801 560 ∞
Honduras 260,331 703 9,904,607 6,933,224 26 years
Hong Kong 11,921 3 7,496,981 5,247,886 4,784 years
Hungary 808,042 132 9,660,351 6,762,245 128 years
Iceland 6,646 9 341,243 238,870 71 years
India 30,316,000 37,037 1,380,004,385 966,003,069 69 years
Indonesia 2,135,998 20,694 273,523,615 191,466,530 25 years
Iran 3,180,092 12,351 83,992,949 58,795,064 12 years
Iraq 1,332,046 6,346 40,222,493 28,155,745 11 years
Ireland 271,589 329 4,937,786 3,456,450 27 years
Isle of Man 1,608 0 85,033 59,523 ∞
Israel 841,196 308 8,655,535 6,058,874 48 years
Italy 4,258,456 389 60,461,826 42,323,278 277 years
Jamaica 50,054 49 2,961,167 2,072,816 113 years
Japan 795,827 1,355 126,476,461 88,533,522 177 years
Jordan 750,389 605 10,203,134 7,142,193 29 years
Kazakhstan 419,800 1,628 18,776,707 13,143,694 21 years
Kenya 182,884 287 53,771,296 37,639,907 358 years
Kuwait 353,133 1,652 4,270,571 2,989,399 4 years
Kyrgyzstan 121,946 1,081 6,524,195 4,566,936 11 years
Lao People's Democratic Republic 2,110 0 7,275,560 5,092,892 ∞
Latvia 137,240 30 1,886,198 1,320,338 111 years
Lebanon 544,520 66 6,825,445 4,777,811 182 years
Lesotho 11,239 0 2,142,249 1,499,574 ∞
Liberia 3,794 58 5,057,681 3,540,376 167 years
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 192,786 316 6,871,292 4,809,904 40 years
Liechtenstein 3,034 2 38,128 26,689 33 years
Lithuania 278,691 17 2,722,289 1,905,602 275 years
Luxembourg 70,642 42 625,978 438,184 25 years
Macao 54 1 649,335 454,534 1,245 years
Macedonia 155,676 3 2,083,374 1,458,361 1,232 years
Madagascar 42,194 0 27,691,018 19,383,712 ∞
Malawi 35,709 80 19,129,952 13,390,966 457 years
Malaysia 739,266 5,218 32,365,999 22,656,199 11 years
Maldives 73,482 155 540,544 378,380 5 years
Mali 14,419 2 20,250,833 14,175,583 19,404 years
Malta 30,612 6 441,543 309,080 131 years
Marshall Islands 4 0 59,190 41,433 ∞
Martinique 12,264 0 375,265 262,685 ∞
Mauritania 20,676 41 4,649,658 3,254,760 216 years
Mauritius 1,833 0 1,271,768 890,237 ∞
Mayotte 19,405 0 272,815 190,970 ∞
Mexico 2,505,792 2,384 128,932,753 90,252,927 101 years
Micronesia 1 0 115,023 80,516 ∞
Moldova 256,614 55 4,033,963 2,823,774 131 years
Monaco 2,575 4 39,242 27,469 17 years
Mongolia 111,505 1,811 3,278,290 2,294,803 40 months
Montenegro 100,204 14 628,066 439,646 72 years
Montserrat 20 0 4,992 3,494 ∞
Morocco 529,895 219 36,910,560 25,837,392 318 years
Mozambique 75,422 284 31,255,435 21,878,804 210 years
Myanmar 154,385 1,225 54,409,800 38,086,860 84 years
Namibia 86,649 1,944 2,540,905 1,778,633 29 months
Nepal 635,188 1,509 29,136,808 20,395,765 36 years
Netherlands 1,683,828 557 17,134,872 11,994,410 53 years
New Caledonia 129 0 285,498 199,848 ∞
New Zealand 2,738 9 4,822,233 3,375,563 1,026 years
Nicaragua 7,920 0 6,624,554 4,637,187 ∞
Niger 5,480 1 24,206,644 16,944,650 46,413 years
Nigeria 167,532 65 206,139,589 144,297,712 6,077 years
Norway 130,744 125 5,421,241 3,794,868 81 years
Oman 264,302 2,243 5,106,626 3,574,638 4 years
Pakistan 955,657 914 220,892,340 154,624,638 461 years
Palestine 313,851 130 5,101,414 3,570,989 70 years
Panama 401,332 666 4,314,767 3,020,336 11 years
Papua New Guinea 17,098 0 8,947,024 6,262,916 ∞
Paraguay 419,764 1,434 7,132,538 4,992,776 8 years
Peru 2,049,567 1,452 32,971,854 23,080,297 40 years
Philippines 1,403,579 5,595 109,581,078 76,706,754 37 years
Poland 2,879,688 51 37,846,611 26,492,627 1,314 years
Portugal 875,449 902 10,196,709 7,137,696 19 years
Qatar 221,810 118 2,881,053 2,016,737 43 years
Réunion 29,502 0 895,312 626,718 ∞
Romania 1,080,667 37 19,237,691 13,466,383 941 years
Russia 5,472,941 21,650 145,934,462 102,154,123 12 years
Rwanda 37,384 757 12,952,218 9,066,552 32 years
S. Korea 155,572 501 51,269,185 35,888,429 195 years
Saint Helena 2 0 0 0 0 years
Saint Kitts and Nevis 439 10 53,199 37,239 10 years
Saint Lucia 5,284 6 183,627 128,538 57 years
Saint Martin 2,276 0 38,666 27,066 ∞
Saint Pierre Miquelon 26 0 5,794 4,055 ∞
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2,219 0 110,940 77,658 ∞
Samoa 3 0 198,414 138,889 ∞
San Marino 5,091 1 33,931 23,751 55 years
Sao Tome and Principe 2,365 0 219,159 153,411 ∞
Saudi Arabia 484,539 1,318 34,813,871 24,369,709 49 years
Senegal 42,929 25 16,743,927 11,720,748 1,281 years
Serbia 716,385 84 8,737,371 6,116,159 183 years
Seychelles 15,579 463 98,347 68,842 4 months
Sierra Leone 5,443 62 7,976,983 5,583,888 246 years
Singapore 62,553 9 5,850,342 4,095,239 1,233 years
Sint Maarten 2,613 12 42,876 30,013 6 years
Slovakia 391,566 15 5,459,642 3,821,749 647 years
Slovenia 257,252 12 2,078,938 1,455,256 291 years
Solomon Islands 20 0 686,884 480,818 ∞
Somalia 14,933 41 15,893,222 11,125,255 742 years
South Africa 1,941,119 12,222 59,308,690 41,516,083 9 years
South Sudan 10,824 12 11,193,725 7,835,607 1,787 years
Spain 3,792,642 3,332 46,754,778 32,728,344 24 years
Sri Lanka 255,508 1,890 21,413,249 14,989,274 21 years
St. Barth 1,005 0 9,877 6,913 ∞
Sudan 36,640 20 43,849,260 30,694,482 4,201 years
Suriname 21,360 111 586,632 410,642 9 years
Swaziland 19,084 49 1,160,164 812,114 44 years
Sweden 1,088,896 0 10,099,265 7,069,485 ∞
Switzerland 702,746 239 8,654,622 6,058,235 63 years
Syrian Arab Republic 25,442 38 17,500,658 12,250,460 881 years
Taiwan 14,694 60 23,816,775 16,671,742 760 years
Tajikistan 13,460 21 9,537,645 6,676,351 869 years
Tanzania 509 0 59,734,218 41,813,952 ∞
Thailand 249,853 5,406 69,799,978 48,859,984 24 years
Timor-Leste 9,055 20 1,318,445 922,911 125 years
Togo 13,846 30 8,278,724 5,795,106 528 years
Trinidad and Tobago 32,343 145 1,399,488 979,641 18 years
Tunisia 408,931 1,914 11,818,619 8,273,033 11 years
Turkey 5,414,310 5,283 84,339,067 59,037,346 28 years
Turks and Caicos Islands 2,424 0 38,717 27,101 ∞
UAE 628,976 2,040 9,890,402 6,923,281 8 years
Uganda 79,089 695 45,741,007 32,018,704 126 years
UK 4,755,078 22,868 67,886,011 47,520,207 5 years
Ukraine 2,234,281 285 43,733,762 30,613,633 279 years
Uruguay 366,915 1,049 3,473,730 2,431,611 5 years
USA 34,511,636 10,754 331,002,651 231,701,855 52 years
Uzbekistan 109,692 469 33,469,203 23,428,442 136 years
Vanuatu 4 0 307,145 215,001 ∞
Venezuela 270,654 1,019 28,435,940 19,905,158 53 years
Vietnam 16,041 398 97,338,579 68,137,005 468 years
Wallis and Futuna 445 0 11,239 7,867 ∞
Western Sahara 10 0 597,339 418,137 ∞
Yemen 6,909 1 29,825,964 20,878,174 57,187 years
Zambia 149,661 1,093 18,383,955 12,868,768 31 years
Zimbabwe 47,284 842 14,862,924 10,404,046 33 years