Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?

The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:

  1. We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
  2. About % of the population will have had the virus.
  3. The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).

In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?

Name Cases New cases yesterday Population Need to be infected Time needed
Afghanistan 107,957 2,202 38,928,346 27,249,842 33 years
Albania 132,496 5 2,877,797 2,014,457 1,052 years
Algeria 136,679 385 43,851,044 30,695,730 217 years
Andorra 13,864 0 77,265 54,085
Angola 37,874 126 32,866,272 23,006,390 499 years
Anguilla 109 0 15,003 10,502
Antigua and Barbuda 1,263 0 97,929 68,550
Argentina 4,298,782 21,387 45,195,774 31,637,041 44 months
Armenia 224,330 77 2,963,243 2,074,270 68 years
Aruba 11,116 4 106,766 74,736 45 years
Australia 30,366 10 25,499,884 17,849,918 4,884 years
Austria 649,728 58 9,006,398 6,304,478 276 years
Azerbaijan 335,568 47 10,139,177 7,097,423 400 years
Bahamas 12,379 15 393,244 275,270 48 years
Bahrain 263,689 394 1,701,575 1,191,102 6 years
Bangladesh 861,150 4,846 164,689,383 115,282,568 64 years
Barbados 4,045 0 287,375 201,162
Belarus 411,551 398 9,449,323 6,614,526 43 years
Belgium 1,079,640 225 11,589,623 8,112,736 89 years
Belize 13,059 20 397,628 278,339 36 years
Benin 8,170 30 12,123,200 8,486,240 774 years
Bermuda 2,504 0 62,278 43,594
Bhutan 1,963 24 771,608 540,125 61 years
Bolivia 422,811 764 11,673,021 8,171,114 28 years
Bosnia 204,886 26 3,280,819 2,296,573 226 years
Botswana 65,808 0 2,351,627 1,646,138
Brazil 18,056,639 86,833 212,559,417 148,791,591 4 years
British Virgin Islands 248 0 30,231 21,161
Brunei 256 1 437,479 306,235 838 years
Bulgaria 421,246 94 6,948,445 4,863,911 133 years
Burkina Faso 13,469 0 20,903,273 14,632,291
Burundi 5,273 31 11,890,784 8,323,548 735 years
Cabo Verde 32,111 72 555,987 389,190 13 years
Cambodia 44,124 678 16,718,965 11,703,275 47 years
Cameroon 80,487 159 26,545,863 18,582,104 319 years
Canada 1,410,206 599 37,742,154 26,419,507 116 years
Cayman Islands 609 0 65,722 46,005
Central African Republic 7,137 8 4,829,767 3,380,836 1,156 years
Chad 4,948 1 16,425,864 11,498,104 31,492 years
Chile 1,525,663 3,440 19,116,201 13,381,340 9 years
China 91,629 25 1,439,323,776 1,007,526,643 110,406 years
Colombia 3,997,021 28,616 50,882,891 35,618,023 38 months
Comoros 3,912 0 869,601 608,720
Congo 12,404 106 5,518,087 3,862,660 99 years
Costa Rica 355,620 1,525 5,094,118 3,565,882 5 years
Côte d'Ivoire 48,058 11 26,378,274 18,464,791 4,590 years
Croatia 359,259 75 4,105,267 2,873,686 95 years
Cuba 170,854 1,489 11,326,616 7,928,631 14 years
Curaçao 12,321 2 164,093 114,865 145 years
Cyprus 73,832 122 1,207,359 845,151 17 years
Czechia 1,666,194 121 10,708,981 7,496,286 143 years
Denmark 291,956 155 5,792,202 4,054,541 68 years
Dominica 191 0 71,986 50,390
Dominican Republic 318,368 723 10,847,910 7,593,537 27 years
DRC 38,330 404 89,561,403 62,692,982 424 years
Ecuador 447,176 543 17,643,054 12,350,137 60 years
Egypt 278,295 498 102,334,404 71,634,082 393 years
El Salvador 77,484 0 6,486,205 4,540,343
Equatorial Guinea 8,708 0 1,402,985 982,089
Eritrea 5,508 87 3,546,421 2,482,494 78 years
Estonia 130,855 37 1,326,535 928,574 61 years
Ethiopia 275,391 73 114,963,588 80,474,511 3,013 years
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 63 0 3,480 2,436
Faroe Islands 769 1 48,863 34,204 92 years
Fiji 2,270 180 896,445 627,511 9 years
Finland 94,489 110 5,540,720 3,878,504 94 years
France 5,760,002 2,204 65,273,511 45,691,457 51 years
French Guiana 26,799 152 298,682 209,077 41 months
French Polynesia 18,981 9 280,908 196,635 55 years
Gabon 24,885 21 2,225,734 1,558,013 200 years
Gambia 6,045 0 2,416,668 1,691,667
Georgia 360,055 914 3,989,167 2,792,416 7 years
Germany 3,731,287 688 83,783,942 58,648,759 223 years
Ghana 95,236 177 31,072,940 21,751,058 335 years
Gibraltar 4,323 2 33,691 23,583 28 years
Greece 418,943 395 10,423,054 7,296,137 48 years
Greenland 50 1 56,770 39,739 108 years
Grenada 161 0 112,523 78,766
Guadeloupe 16,752 0 400,124 280,086
Guatemala 282,713 1,859 17,915,568 12,540,897 18 years
Guinea 23,543 8 13,132,795 9,192,956 3,142 years
Guinea-Bissau 3,834 9 1,968,001 1,377,600 418 years
Guyana 19,234 90 786,552 550,586 16 years
Haiti 17,710 107 11,402,528 7,981,769 204 years
Holy See (Vatican City State) 27 0 801 560
Honduras 254,194 319 9,904,607 6,933,224 58 years
Hong Kong 11,897 7 7,496,981 5,247,886 2,050 years
Hungary 807,684 54 9,660,351 6,762,245 314 years
Iceland 6,630 0 341,243 238,870
India 30,027,850 54,393 1,380,004,385 966,003,069 47 years
Indonesia 2,018,113 13,668 273,523,615 191,466,530 38 years
Iran 3,117,336 11,716 83,992,949 58,795,064 13 years
Iraq 1,298,703 6,003 40,222,493 28,155,745 12 years
Ireland 269,495 174 4,937,786 3,456,450 51 years
Isle of Man 1,601 2 85,033 59,523 80 years
Israel 840,079 89 8,655,535 6,058,874 168 years
Italy 4,254,294 835 60,461,826 42,323,278 129 years
Jamaica 49,735 23 2,961,167 2,072,816 242 years
Japan 786,213 926 126,476,461 88,533,522 260 years
Jordan 747,504 504 10,203,134 7,142,193 35 years
Kazakhstan 410,523 943 18,776,707 13,143,694 37 years
Kenya 179,876 583 53,771,296 37,639,907 176 years
Kuwait 342,929 1,962 4,270,571 2,989,399 46 months
Kyrgyzstan 116,546 931 6,524,195 4,566,936 13 years
Lao People's Democratic Republic 2,067 13 7,275,560 5,092,892 1,073 years
Latvia 136,975 125 1,886,198 1,320,338 26 years
Lebanon 543,698 147 6,825,445 4,777,811 81 years
Lesotho 11,128 21 2,142,249 1,499,574 194 years
Liberia 3,109 0 5,057,681 3,540,376
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 191,253 215 6,871,292 4,809,904 59 years
Liechtenstein 3,028 0 38,128 26,689
Lithuania 278,472 64 2,722,289 1,905,602 73 years
Luxembourg 70,547 12 625,978 438,184 88 years
Macao 53 0 649,335 454,534
Macedonia 155,640 13 2,083,374 1,458,361 284 years
Madagascar 42,137 0 27,691,018 19,383,712
Malawi 34,996 82 19,129,952 13,390,966 446 years
Malaysia 705,762 4,743 32,365,999 22,656,199 12 years
Maldives 72,294 145 540,544 378,380 6 years
Mali 14,385 0 20,250,833 14,175,583
Malta 30,595 5 441,543 309,080 157 years
Marshall Islands 4 0 59,190 41,433
Martinique 12,264 86 375,265 262,685 8 years
Mauritania 20,415 50 4,649,658 3,254,760 177 years
Mauritius 1,779 0 1,271,768 890,237
Mayotte 19,389 0 272,815 190,970
Mexico 2,478,551 1,268 128,932,753 90,252,927 191 years
Micronesia 1 0 115,023 80,516
Moldova 256,232 45 4,033,963 2,823,774 160 years
Monaco 2,554 5 39,242 27,469 14 years
Mongolia 98,050 2,231 3,278,290 2,294,803 33 months
Montenegro 100,104 12 628,066 439,646 84 years
Montserrat 20 0 4,992 3,494
Morocco 527,174 437 36,910,560 25,837,392 159 years
Mozambique 72,775 198 31,255,435 21,878,804 302 years
Myanmar 149,247 630 54,409,800 38,086,860 165 years
Namibia 77,333 1,567 2,540,905 1,778,633 36 months
Nepal 626,343 3,703 29,136,808 20,395,765 14 years
Netherlands 1,680,228 686 17,134,872 11,994,410 43 years
New Caledonia 129 0 285,498 199,848
New Zealand 2,720 0 4,822,233 3,375,563
Nicaragua 7,920 224 6,624,554 4,637,187 56 years
Niger 5,469 0 24,206,644 16,944,650
Nigeria 167,331 39 206,139,589 144,297,712 10,128 years
Norway 129,766 221 5,421,241 3,794,868 45 years
Oman 252,609 2,037 5,106,626 3,574,638 4 years
Pakistan 949,838 663 220,892,340 154,624,638 636 years
Palestine 313,015 204 5,101,414 3,570,989 45 years
Panama 395,449 1,208 4,314,767 3,020,336 6 years
Papua New Guinea 17,041 28 8,947,024 6,262,916 611 years
Paraguay 409,467 1,746 7,132,538 4,992,776 7 years
Peru 2,033,606 2,995 32,971,854 23,080,297 19 years
Philippines 1,367,879 3,651 109,581,078 76,706,754 56 years
Poland 2,879,027 185 37,846,611 26,492,627 362 years
Portugal 866,826 1,020 10,196,709 7,137,696 17 years
Qatar 221,119 189 2,881,053 2,016,737 26 years
Réunion 29,502 1,061 895,312 626,718 19 months
Romania 1,080,323 41 19,237,691 13,466,383 849 years
Russia 5,350,919 16,715 145,934,462 102,154,123 16 years
Rwanda 32,296 861 12,952,218 9,066,552 28 years
S. Korea 151,901 395 51,269,185 35,888,429 248 years
Saint Helena 2 0 0 0 0 years
Saint Kitts and Nevis 377 27 53,199 37,239 45 months
Saint Lucia 5,227 9 183,627 128,538 38 years
Saint Martin 2,133 0 38,666 27,066
Saint Pierre Miquelon 26 0 5,794 4,055
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2,207 11 110,940 77,658 18 years
Samoa 3 0 198,414 138,889
San Marino 5,090 0 33,931 23,751
Sao Tome and Principe 2,363 1 219,159 153,411 415 years
Saudi Arabia 476,882 1,479 34,813,871 24,369,709 44 years
Senegal 42,472 35 16,743,927 11,720,748 915 years
Serbia 715,913 72 8,737,371 6,116,159 213 years
Seychelles 14,620 497 98,347 68,842 16 weeks
Sierra Leone 4,963 84 7,976,983 5,583,888 182 years
Singapore 62,448 18 5,850,342 4,095,239 616 years
Sint Maarten 2,582 7 42,876 30,013 11 years
Slovakia 391,385 59 5,459,642 3,821,749 164 years
Slovenia 257,066 65 2,078,938 1,455,256 53 years
Solomon Islands 20 0 686,884 480,818
Somalia 14,868 1 15,893,222 11,125,255 30,451 years
South Africa 1,843,572 11,093 59,308,690 41,516,083 9 years
South Sudan 10,786 0 11,193,725 7,835,607
Spain 3,768,691 4,040 46,754,778 32,728,344 20 years
Sri Lanka 243,913 2,093 21,413,249 14,989,274 19 years
St. Barth 1,005 0 9,877 6,913
Sudan 36,522 175 43,849,260 30,694,482 480 years
Suriname 20,298 157 586,632 410,642 6 years
Swaziland 18,854 23 1,160,164 812,114 95 years
Sweden 1,088,518 506 10,099,265 7,069,485 34 years
Switzerland 702,124 130 8,654,622 6,058,235 117 years
Syrian Arab Republic 25,205 47 17,500,658 12,250,460 713 years
Taiwan 14,156 78 23,816,775 16,671,742 585 years
Tajikistan 13,340 32 9,537,645 6,676,351 570 years
Tanzania 509 0 59,734,218 41,813,952
Thailand 225,365 4,059 69,799,978 48,859,984 32 years
Timor-Leste 8,781 53 1,318,445 922,911 47 years
Togo 13,735 4 8,278,724 5,795,106 3,962 years
Trinidad and Tobago 30,982 215 1,399,488 979,641 12 years
Tunisia 387,773 2,345 11,818,619 8,273,033 9 years
Turkey 5,381,736 6,143 84,339,067 59,037,346 24 years
Turks and Caicos Islands 2,424 0 38,717 27,101
UAE 616,160 2,167 9,890,402 6,923,281 8 years
Uganda 73,401 722 45,741,007 32,018,704 121 years
UK 4,651,988 11,625 67,886,011 47,520,207 10 years
Ukraine 2,230,142 296 43,733,762 30,613,633 268 years
Uruguay 358,461 2,079 3,473,730 2,431,611 34 months
USA 34,434,803 11,005 331,002,651 231,701,855 51 years
Uzbekistan 106,847 395 33,469,203 23,428,442 161 years
Vanuatu 4 0 307,145 215,001
Venezuela 263,372 1,334 28,435,940 19,905,158 40 years
Vietnam 13,727 244 97,338,579 68,137,005 764 years
Wallis and Futuna 445 0 11,239 7,867
Western Sahara 10 0 597,339 418,137
Yemen 6,892 3 29,825,964 20,878,174 19,062 years
Zambia 133,659 3,028 18,383,955 12,868,768 11 years
Zimbabwe 42,714 519 14,862,924 10,404,046 54 years