Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?

The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:

  1. We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
  2. About % of the population will have had the virus.
  3. The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).

In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?

Name Cases New cases yesterday Population Need to be infected Time needed
Afghanistan 14,525 866 38,928,346 27,249,842 86 years
Albania 1,122 23 2,877,797 2,014,457 239 years
Algeria 9,267 133 43,851,044 30,695,730 632 years
Andorra 764 0 77,265 54,085
Angola 84 3 32,866,272 23,006,390 21,010 years
Anguilla 3 0 15,003 10,502
Antigua and Barbuda 25 0 97,929 68,550
Argentina 16,214 795 45,195,774 31,637,041 108 years
Armenia 8,927 251 2,963,243 2,074,270 22 years
Aruba 101 0 106,766 74,736
Australia 7,185 12 25,499,884 17,849,918 4,074 years
Austria 16,685 30 9,006,398 6,304,478 574 years
Azerbaijan 5,246 257 10,139,177 7,097,423 75 years
Bahamas 102 0 393,244 275,270
Bahrain 10,793 344 1,701,575 1,191,102 9 years
Bangladesh 44,608 1,764 164,689,383 115,282,568 179 years
Barbados 92 0 287,375 201,162
Belarus 41,658 894 9,449,323 6,614,526 20 years
Belgium 58,186 125 11,589,623 8,112,736 176 years
Belize 18 0 397,628 278,339
Benin 224 0 12,123,200 8,486,240
Bermuda 140 0 62,278 43,594
Bhutan 33 2 771,608 540,125 739 years
Bolivia 8,731 344 11,673,021 8,171,114 65 years
Bosnia 2,494 9 3,280,819 2,296,573 698 years
Botswana 35 0 2,351,627 1,646,138
Brazil 498,440 30,102 212,559,417 148,791,591 13 years
British Virgin Islands 8 0 30,231 21,161
Brunei 141 0 437,479 306,235
Bulgaria 2,499 14 6,948,445 4,863,911 951 years
Burkina Faso 847 0 20,903,273 14,632,291
Burundi 63 21 11,890,784 8,323,548 1,085 years
Cabo Verde 421 16 555,987 389,190 66 years
Cambodia 125 1 16,718,965 11,703,275 32,063 years
Cameroon 5,904 468 26,545,863 18,582,104 108 years
Canada 90,190 772 37,742,154 26,419,507 93 years
Cayman Islands 141 0 65,722 46,005
Central African Republic 962 88 4,829,767 3,380,836 105 years
Chad 759 0 16,425,864 11,498,104
Chile 94,858 4,220 19,116,201 13,381,340 8 years
China 82,999 4 1,439,323,776 1,007,526,643 690,046 years
Colombia 28,236 1,548 50,882,891 35,618,023 63 years
Comoros 106 19 869,601 608,720 87 years
Congo 571 0 5,518,087 3,862,660
Costa Rica 1,047 25 5,094,118 3,565,882 390 years
Côte d'Ivoire 2,799 49 26,378,274 18,464,791 1,032 years
Croatia 2,246 1 4,105,267 2,873,686 7,868 years
Cuba 2,025 20 11,326,616 7,928,631 1,085 years
Curaçao 19 1 164,093 114,865 314 years
Cyprus 943 1 1,207,359 845,151 2,313 years
Czechia 9,230 34 10,708,981 7,496,286 603 years
Denmark 11,633 40 5,792,202 4,054,541 277 years
Dominica 16 0 71,986 50,390
Dominican Republic 16,908 377 10,847,910 7,593,537 55 years
DRC 2,966 133 89,561,403 62,692,982 1,291 years
Ecuador 38,571 0 17,643,054 12,350,137
Egypt 23,449 1,367 102,334,404 71,634,082 143 years
El Salvador 2,395 117 6,486,205 4,540,343 106 years
Equatorial Guinea 1,306 0 1,402,985 982,089
Eritrea 39 0 3,546,421 2,482,494
Estonia 1,865 6 1,326,535 928,574 423 years
Ethiopia 1,063 95 114,963,588 80,474,511 2,320 years
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 13 0 3,480 2,436
Faroe Islands 187 0 48,863 34,204
Fiji 18 0 896,445 627,511
Finland 6,826 50 5,540,720 3,878,504 212 years
France 188,625 1,828 65,273,511 45,691,457 68 years
French Guiana 477 27 298,682 209,077 21 years
French Polynesia 60 0 280,908 196,635
Gabon 2,655 42 2,225,734 1,558,013 101 years
Gambia 25 0 2,416,668 1,691,667
Georgia 757 11 3,989,167 2,792,416 695 years
Germany 183,294 275 83,783,942 58,648,759 583 years
Ghana 7,768 152 31,072,940 21,751,058 391 years
Gibraltar 169 8 33,691 23,583 8 years
Greece 2,915 6 10,423,054 7,296,137 3,330 years
Greenland 13 0 56,770 39,739
Grenada 23 0 112,523 78,766
Guadeloupe 162 0 400,124 280,086
Guatemala 4,607 259 17,915,568 12,540,897 132 years
Guinea 3,706 50 13,132,795 9,192,956 503 years
Guinea-Bissau 1,256 0 1,968,001 1,377,600
Guyana 152 2 786,552 550,586 754 years
Haiti 1,584 141 11,402,528 7,981,769 155 years
Holy See (Vatican City State) 12 0 801 560
Honduras 4,886 134 9,904,607 6,933,224 141 years
Hong Kong 1,083 3 7,496,981 5,247,886 4,791 years
Hungary 3,867 26 9,660,351 6,762,245 712 years
Iceland 1,806 1 341,243 238,870 650 years
India 181,827 8,336 1,380,004,385 966,003,069 317 years
Indonesia 25,773 557 273,523,615 191,466,530 941 years
Iran 148,950 2,282 83,992,949 58,795,064 70 years
Iraq 6,179 306 40,222,493 28,155,745 252 years
Ireland 24,929 53 4,937,786 3,456,450 177 years
Isle of Man 336 0 85,033 59,523
Israel 17,012 25 8,655,535 6,058,874 662 years
Italy 232,664 416 60,461,826 42,323,278 277 years
Jamaica 575 6 2,961,167 2,072,816 946 years
Japan 16,804 85 126,476,461 88,533,522 2,853 years
Jordan 734 4 10,203,134 7,142,193 4,891 years
Kazakhstan 10,382 450 18,776,707 13,143,694 79 years
Kenya 1,888 143 53,771,296 37,639,907 721 years
Kuwait 26,192 1,008 4,270,571 2,989,399 8 years
Kyrgyzstan 1,722 60 6,524,195 4,566,936 208 years
Lao People's Democratic Republic 19 0 7,275,560 5,092,892
Latvia 1,065 1 1,886,198 1,320,338 3,615 years
Lebanon 1,191 19 6,825,445 4,777,811 688 years
Lesotho 2 0 2,142,249 1,499,574
Liberia 280 7 5,057,681 3,540,376 1,385 years
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 130 12 6,871,292 4,809,904 1,098 years
Liechtenstein 82 0 38,128 26,689
Lithuania 1,670 8 2,722,289 1,905,602 652 years
Luxembourg 4,016 4 625,978 438,184 298 years
Macao 45 0 649,335 454,534
Macedonia 2,164 35 2,083,374 1,458,361 114 years
Madagascar 758 60 27,691,018 19,383,712 885 years
Malawi 279 6 19,129,952 13,390,966 6,114 years
Malaysia 7,762 30 32,365,999 22,656,199 2,068 years
Maldives 1,672 81 540,544 378,380 12 years
Mali 1,250 24 20,250,833 14,175,583 1,618 years
Malta 618 2 441,543 309,080 422 years
Martinique 200 0 375,265 262,685
Mauritania 483 60 4,649,658 3,254,760 148 years
Mauritius 335 0 1,271,768 890,237
Mayotte 1,699 0 272,815 190,970
Mexico 84,627 3,227 128,932,753 90,252,927 76 years
Moldova 8,098 202 4,033,963 2,823,774 38 years
Monaco 99 1 39,242 27,469 75 years
Mongolia 179 0 3,278,290 2,294,803
Montenegro 324 0 628,066 439,646
Montserrat 11 0 4,992 3,494
Morocco 7,780 66 36,910,560 25,837,392 1,072 years
Mozambique 244 10 31,255,435 21,878,804 5,994 years
Myanmar 224 17 54,409,800 38,086,860 6,138 years
Namibia 23 0 2,540,905 1,778,633
Nepal 1,401 189 29,136,808 20,395,765 295 years
Netherlands 46,257 131 17,134,872 11,994,410 250 years
New Caledonia 19 0 285,498 199,848
New Zealand 1,504 0 4,822,233 3,375,563
Nicaragua 759 0 6,624,554 4,637,187
Niger 956 1 24,206,644 16,944,650 46,421 years
Nigeria 9,855 553 206,139,589 144,297,712 714 years
Norway 8,437 15 5,421,241 3,794,868 692 years
Oman 10,423 603 5,106,626 3,574,638 16 years
Pakistan 66,457 2,429 220,892,340 154,624,638 174 years
Palestine 447 1 5,101,414 3,570,989 9,782 years
Panama 13,018 487 4,314,767 3,020,336 16 years
Papua New Guinea 8 0 8,947,024 6,262,916
Paraguay 964 47 7,132,538 4,992,776 290 years
Peru 155,671 7,386 32,971,854 23,080,297 8 years
Philippines 17,224 590 109,581,078 76,706,754 356 years
Poland 23,571 416 37,846,611 26,492,627 174 years
Portugal 32,203 257 10,196,709 7,137,696 75 years
Qatar 55,262 2,355 2,881,053 2,016,737 27 months
Réunion 471 1 895,312 626,718 1,716 years
Romania 19,133 151 19,237,691 13,466,383 244 years
Russia 396,575 8,952 145,934,462 102,154,123 31 years
Rwanda 359 4 12,952,218 9,066,552 6,209 years
S. Korea 11,441 39 51,269,185 35,888,429 2,520 years
Saint Kitts and Nevis 15 0 53,199 37,239
Saint Lucia 18 0 183,627 128,538
Saint Martin 41 1 38,666 27,066 74 years
Saint Pierre Miquelon 1 0 5,794 4,055
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 26 0 110,940 77,658
San Marino 671 0 33,931 23,751
Sao Tome and Principe 479 16 219,159 153,411 26 years
Saudi Arabia 83,384 1,618 34,813,871 24,369,709 41 years
Senegal 3,535 106 16,743,927 11,720,748 302 years
Serbia 11,381 27 8,737,371 6,116,159 619 years
Seychelles 11 0 98,347 68,842
Sierra Leone 852 23 7,976,983 5,583,888 665 years
Singapore 34,366 506 5,850,342 4,095,239 22 years
Sint Maarten 77 0 42,876 30,013
Slovakia 1,521 1 5,459,642 3,821,749 10,467 years
Slovenia 1,473 0 2,078,938 1,455,256
Somalia 1,916 88 15,893,222 11,125,255 346 years
South Africa 30,967 1,727 59,308,690 41,516,083 65 years
South Sudan 994 0 11,193,725 7,835,607
Spain 286,308 664 46,754,778 32,728,344 134 years
Sri Lanka 1,613 55 21,413,249 14,989,274 746 years
St. Barth 6 0 9,877 6,913
Sudan 4,800 279 43,849,260 30,694,482 301 years
Suriname 12 0 586,632 410,642
Swaziland 283 4 1,160,164 812,114 556 years
Sweden 37,113 637 10,099,265 7,069,485 30 years
Switzerland 30,845 17 8,654,622 6,058,235 972 years
Syrian Arab Republic 122 0 17,500,658 12,250,460
Taiwan 442 0 23,816,775 16,671,742
Tajikistan 3,807 121 9,537,645 6,676,351 151 years
Tanzania 509 0 59,734,218 41,813,952
Thailand 3,077 1 69,799,978 48,859,984 133,857 years
Timor-Leste 24 0 1,318,445 922,911
Togo 433 5 8,278,724 5,795,106 3,175 years
Trinidad and Tobago 116 0 1,399,488 979,641
Tunisia 1,076 5 11,818,619 8,273,033 4,532 years
Turkey 163,103 983 84,339,067 59,037,346 164 years
Turks and Caicos Islands 12 0 38,717 27,101
UAE 33,896 726 9,890,402 6,923,281 26 years
Uganda 413 84 45,741,007 32,018,704 1,044 years
UK 272,826 1,604 67,886,011 47,520,207 80 years
Ukraine 23,204 393 43,733,762 30,613,633 213 years
Uruguay 821 5 3,473,730 2,431,611 1,332 years
USA 1,816,820 23,290 331,002,651 231,701,855 27 years
Uzbekistan 3,546 78 33,469,203 23,428,442 822 years
Venezuela 1,459 89 28,435,940 19,905,158 612 years
Vietnam 328 1 97,338,579 68,137,005 186,676 years
Western Sahara 9 0 597,339 418,137
Yemen 310 27 29,825,964 20,878,174 2,118 years
Zambia 1,057 0 18,383,955 12,868,768
Zimbabwe 174 25 14,862,924 10,404,046 1,140 years