Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?

The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:

  1. We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
  2. About % of the population will have had the virus.
  3. The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).

In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?

Name Cases New cases yesterday Population Need to be infected Time needed
Afghanistan 57,612 78 38,928,346 27,249,842 955 years
Albania 129,128 169 2,877,797 2,014,457 31 years
Algeria 119,142 167 43,851,044 30,695,730 502 years
Andorra 12,641 0 77,265 54,085
Angola 23,951 110 32,866,272 23,006,390 572 years
Anguilla 25 0 15,003 10,502
Antigua and Barbuda 1,209 8 97,929 68,550 23 years
Argentina 2,629,156 24,999 45,195,774 31,637,041 39 months
Armenia 206,142 1,014 2,963,243 2,074,270 5 years
Aruba 10,219 60 106,766 74,736 37 months
Australia 29,469 27 25,499,884 17,849,918 1,809 years
Austria 586,883 2,678 9,006,398 6,304,478 6 years
Azerbaijan 294,211 2,317 10,139,177 7,097,423 8 years
Bahamas 9,505 0 393,244 275,270
Bahrain 160,934 970 1,701,575 1,191,102 37 months
Bangladesh 707,362 4,192 164,689,383 115,282,568 75 years
Barbados 3,753 9 287,375 201,162 60 years
Belarus 340,023 1,222 9,449,323 6,614,526 14 years
Belgium 935,316 4,713 11,589,623 8,112,736 4 years
Belize 12,529 7 397,628 278,339 105 years
Benin 7,611 0 12,123,200 8,486,240
Bermuda 2,023 88 62,278 43,594 15 months
Bhutan 934 5 771,608 540,125 295 years
Bolivia 285,291 1,108 11,673,021 8,171,114 19 years
Bosnia 187,715 1,343 3,280,819 2,296,573 4 years
Botswana 44,075 631 2,351,627 1,646,138 7 years
Brazil 13,758,093 80,529 212,559,417 148,791,591 4 years
British Virgin Islands 187 9 30,231 21,161 6 years
Brunei 221 0 437,479 306,235
Bulgaria 382,761 2,185 6,948,445 4,863,911 5 years
Burkina Faso 13,064 14 20,903,273 14,632,291 2,861 years
Burundi 3,424 91 11,890,784 8,323,548 250 years
Cabo Verde 19,780 255 555,987 389,190 4 years
Cambodia 5,218 344 16,718,965 11,703,275 93 years
Cameroon 61,731 0 26,545,863 18,582,104
Canada 1,096,716 9,564 37,742,154 26,419,507 7 years
Cayman Islands 523 0 65,722 46,005
Central African Republic 5,682 0 4,829,767 3,380,836
Chad 4,673 11 16,425,864 11,498,104 2,862 years
Chile 1,101,698 7,431 19,116,201 13,381,340 4 years
China 90,457 10 1,439,323,776 1,007,526,643 276,017 years
Colombia 2,602,719 16,918 50,882,891 35,618,023 5 years
Comoros 3,809 6 869,601 608,720 276 years
Congo 10,084 0 5,518,087 3,862,660
Costa Rica 227,533 1,121 5,094,118 3,565,882 8 years
Côte d'Ivoire 45,444 56 26,378,274 18,464,791 901 years
Croatia 300,900 2,927 4,105,267 2,873,686 30 months
Cuba 90,408 1,004 11,326,616 7,928,631 21 years
Curaçao 11,674 93 164,093 114,865 38 months
Cyprus 53,944 690 1,207,359 845,151 39 months
Czechia 1,593,865 3,710 10,708,981 7,496,286 4 years
Denmark 240,330 798 5,792,202 4,054,541 13 years
Dominica 165 0 71,986 50,390
Dominican Republic 259,639 379 10,847,910 7,593,537 53 years
DRC 28,769 55 89,561,403 62,692,982 3,121 years
Ecuador 355,431 4,892 17,643,054 12,350,137 6 years
Egypt 213,798 837 102,334,404 71,634,082 233 years
El Salvador 67,099 283 6,486,205 4,540,343 43 years
Equatorial Guinea 7,259 0 1,402,985 982,089
Eritrea 3,486 7 3,546,421 2,482,494 970 years
Estonia 116,200 572 1,326,535 928,574 4 years
Ethiopia 236,554 2,149 114,963,588 80,474,511 102 years
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 62 0 3,480 2,436
Faroe Islands 662 0 48,863 34,204
Fiji 68 0 896,445 627,511
Finland 83,253 289 5,540,720 3,878,504 36 years
France 5,187,879 38,045 65,273,511 45,691,457 36 months
French Guiana 17,965 82 298,682 209,077 6 years
French Polynesia 18,680 0 280,908 196,635
Gabon 21,566 0 2,225,734 1,558,013
Gambia 5,694 12 2,416,668 1,691,667 385 years
Georgia 292,244 1,030 3,989,167 2,792,416 6 years
Germany 3,095,016 30,634 83,783,942 58,648,759 5 years
Ghana 91,545 68 31,072,940 21,751,058 873 years
Gibraltar 4,290 0 33,691 23,583
Greece 308,006 3,822 10,423,054 7,296,137 5 years
Greenland 31 0 56,770 39,739
Grenada 155 0 112,523 78,766
Guadeloupe 12,717 0 400,124 280,086
Guatemala 208,694 1,567 17,915,568 12,540,897 21 years
Guinea 21,299 0 13,132,795 9,192,956
Guinea-Bissau 3,706 12 1,968,001 1,377,600 313 years
Guyana 11,527 153 786,552 550,586 9 years
Haiti 12,876 19 11,402,528 7,981,769 1,149 years
Holy See (Vatican City State) 27 0 801 560
Honduras 198,214 1,510 9,904,607 6,933,224 12 years
Hong Kong 11,619 6 7,496,981 5,247,886 2,392 years
Hungary 736,982 5,307 9,660,351 6,762,245 39 months
Iceland 6,279 4 341,243 238,870 160 years
India 14,287,740 216,850 1,380,004,385 966,003,069 12 years
Indonesia 1,589,359 6,177 273,523,615 191,466,530 84 years
Iran 2,168,872 25,078 83,992,949 58,795,064 6 years
Iraq 956,860 7,810 40,222,493 28,155,745 9 years
Ireland 242,402 297 4,937,786 3,456,450 30 years
Isle of Man 1,575 0 85,033 59,523
Israel 836,706 202 8,655,535 6,058,874 74 years
Italy 3,826,156 16,974 60,461,826 42,323,278 6 years
Jamaica 43,240 186 2,961,167 2,072,816 30 years
Japan 516,121 3,952 126,476,461 88,533,522 61 years
Jordan 679,138 2,963 10,203,134 7,142,193 6 years
Kazakhstan 278,695 2,641 18,776,707 13,143,694 13 years
Kenya 149,219 1,091 53,771,296 37,639,907 94 years
Kuwait 253,066 1,391 4,270,571 2,989,399 5 years
Kyrgyzstan 91,144 305 6,524,195 4,566,936 40 years
Lao People's Democratic Republic 53 0 7,275,560 5,092,892
Latvia 109,731 643 1,886,198 1,320,338 5 years
Lebanon 504,800 2,501 6,825,445 4,777,811 4 years
Lesotho 10,709 0 2,142,249 1,499,574
Liberia 2,042 0 5,057,681 3,540,376
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 170,558 513 6,871,292 4,809,904 25 years
Liechtenstein 2,780 10 38,128 26,689 6 years
Lithuania 230,513 1,219 2,722,289 1,905,602 47 months
Luxembourg 64,549 215 625,978 438,184 5 years
Macao 49 0 649,335 454,534
Macedonia 145,001 890 2,083,374 1,458,361 4 years
Madagascar 30,207 859 27,691,018 19,383,712 61 years
Malawi 33,902 11 19,129,952 13,390,966 3,329 years
Malaysia 367,977 2,148 32,365,999 22,656,199 28 years
Maldives 25,939 95 540,544 378,380 10 years
Mali 12,706 239 20,250,833 14,175,583 162 years
Malta 29,833 55 441,543 309,080 14 years
Marshall Islands 4 0 59,190 41,433
Martinique 9,890 0 375,265 262,685
Mauritania 18,072 6 4,649,658 3,254,760 1,480 years
Mauritius 1,202 1 1,271,768 890,237 2,436 years
Mayotte 19,757 0 272,815 190,970
Mexico 2,291,246 5,113 128,932,753 90,252,927 47 years
Micronesia 1 0 115,023 80,516
Moldova 244,177 812 4,033,963 2,823,774 8 years
Monaco 2,387 3 39,242 27,469 23 years
Mongolia 18,565 742 3,278,290 2,294,803 8 years
Montenegro 95,042 183 628,066 439,646 5 years
Montserrat 20 0 4,992 3,494
Morocco 504,260 596 36,910,560 25,837,392 117 years
Mozambique 69,002 75 31,255,435 21,878,804 797 years
Myanmar 142,610 5 54,409,800 38,086,860 20,814 years
Namibia 46,185 134 2,540,905 1,778,633 35 years
Nepal 282,054 490 29,136,808 20,395,765 112 years
Netherlands 1,378,145 8,734 17,134,872 11,994,410 42 months
New Caledonia 121 0 285,498 199,848
New Zealand 2,591 2 4,822,233 3,375,563 4,621 years
Nicaragua 6,778 0 6,624,554 4,637,187
Niger 5,113 5 24,206,644 16,944,650 9,282 years
Nigeria 164,080 80 206,139,589 144,297,712 4,937 years
Norway 106,224 953 5,421,241 3,794,868 10 years
Oman 176,668 1,035 5,106,626 3,574,638 9 years
Pakistan 739,818 5,395 220,892,340 154,624,638 78 years
Palestine 276,407 1,717 5,101,414 3,570,989 5 years
Panama 359,830 314 4,314,767 3,020,336 24 years
Papua New Guinea 9,188 204 8,947,024 6,262,916 84 years
Paraguay 244,528 2,367 7,132,538 4,992,776 5 years
Peru 1,681,063 13,326 32,971,854 23,080,297 4 years
Philippines 904,245 11,389 109,581,078 76,706,754 18 years
Poland 2,642,241 21,129 37,846,611 26,492,627 38 months
Portugal 829,358 501 10,196,709 7,137,696 35 years
Qatar 193,952 989 2,881,053 2,016,737 5 years
Réunion 18,425 0 895,312 626,718
Romania 1,020,301 3,852 19,237,691 13,466,383 9 years
Russia 4,675,153 8,944 145,934,462 102,154,123 30 years
Rwanda 23,744 72 12,952,218 9,066,552 344 years
S. Korea 112,117 698 51,269,185 35,888,429 140 years
Saint Kitts and Nevis 44 0 53,199 37,239
Saint Lucia 4,355 0 183,627 128,538
Saint Martin 1,702 9 38,666 27,066 7 years
Saint Pierre Miquelon 24 0 5,794 4,055
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 1,818 6 110,940 77,658 34 years
Samoa 3 0 198,414 138,889
San Marino 5,010 5 33,931 23,751 11 years
Sao Tome and Principe 2,271 2 219,159 153,411 207 years
Saudi Arabia 402,142 985 34,813,871 24,369,709 67 years
Senegal 39,606 46 16,743,927 11,720,748 696 years
Serbia 654,870 2,971 8,737,371 6,116,159 5 years
Seychelles 4,765 132 98,347 68,842 16 months
Sierra Leone 4,016 3 7,976,983 5,583,888 5,096 years
Singapore 60,735 16 5,850,342 4,095,239 693 years
Sint Maarten 2,199 3 42,876 30,013 26 years
Slovakia 373,950 843 5,459,642 3,821,749 11 years
Slovenia 229,966 890 2,078,938 1,455,256 48 months
Solomon Islands 20 0 686,884 480,818
Somalia 12,837 0 15,893,222 11,125,255
South Africa 1,562,931 1,372 59,308,690 41,516,083 80 years
South Sudan 10,416 11 11,193,725 7,835,607 1,949 years
Spain 3,396,685 9,663 46,754,778 32,728,344 8 years
Sri Lanka 95,949 212 21,413,249 14,989,274 192 years
St. Barth 934 27 9,877 6,913 7 months
Sudan 31,790 0 43,849,260 30,694,482
Suriname 9,458 41 586,632 410,642 26 years
Swaziland 18,412 5 1,160,164 812,114 437 years
Sweden 892,480 0 10,099,265 7,069,485
Switzerland 630,194 2,226 8,654,622 6,058,235 6 years
Syrian Arab Republic 20,713 158 17,500,658 12,250,460 212 years
Taiwan 1,068 1 23,816,775 16,671,742 45,673 years
Tajikistan 13,308 0 9,537,645 6,676,351
Tanzania 509 0 59,734,218 41,813,952
Thailand 37,453 1,543 69,799,978 48,859,984 86 years
Timor-Leste 1,138 35 1,318,445 922,911 72 years
Togo 12,214 0 8,278,724 5,795,106
Trinidad and Tobago 8,678 82 1,399,488 979,641 32 years
Tunisia 279,376 2,649 11,818,619 8,273,033 8 years
Turkey 4,086,957 61,400 84,339,067 59,037,346 30 months
Turks and Caicos Islands 2,367 7 38,717 27,101 9 years
UAE 491,423 1,928 9,890,402 6,923,281 9 years
Uganda 41,263 26 45,741,007 32,018,704 3,370 years
UK 4,380,976 2,672 67,886,011 47,520,207 45 years
Ukraine 1,903,765 16,427 43,733,762 30,613,633 4 years
Uruguay 156,499 4,410 3,473,730 2,431,611 17 months
USA 32,224,139 74,479 331,002,651 231,701,855 7 years
Uzbekistan 85,730 227 33,469,203 23,428,442 282 years
Vanuatu 3 0 307,145 215,001
Venezuela 179,365 1,271 28,435,940 19,905,158 42 years
Vietnam 2,758 25 97,338,579 68,137,005 7,466 years
Wallis and Futuna 437 0 11,239 7,867
Western Sahara 10 0 597,339 418,137
Yemen 5,657 75 29,825,964 20,878,174 762 years
Zambia 90,532 143 18,383,955 12,868,768 245 years
Zimbabwe 37,422 53 14,862,924 10,404,046 536 years