Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?

The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:

  1. We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
  2. About % of the population will have had the virus.
  3. The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).

In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?

Name Cases New cases yesterday Population Need to be infected Time needed
Afghanistan 54,403 125 38,928,346 27,249,842 596 years
Albania 69,238 670 2,877,797 2,014,457 8 years
Algeria 104,606 265 43,851,044 30,695,730 316 years
Andorra 9,308 114 77,265 54,085 13 months
Angola 19,093 82 32,866,272 23,006,390 768 years
Anguilla 15 0 15,003 10,502
Antigua and Barbuda 190 0 97,929 68,550
Argentina 1,831,681 12,112 45,195,774 31,637,041 6 years
Armenia 165,221 309 2,963,243 2,074,270 17 years
Aruba 6,562 39 106,766 74,736 4 years
Australia 28,740 10 25,499,884 17,849,918 4,884 years
Austria 398,096 1,671 9,006,398 6,304,478 9 years
Azerbaijan 228,028 332 10,139,177 7,097,423 57 years
Bahamas 8,075 7 393,244 275,270 105 years
Bahrain 98,573 313 1,701,575 1,191,102 9 years
Bangladesh 529,687 656 164,689,383 115,282,568 479 years
Barbados 1,156 61 287,375 201,162 8 years
Belarus 230,494 1,778 9,449,323 6,614,526 9 years
Belgium 681,250 1,479 11,589,623 8,112,736 14 years
Belize 11,642 27 397,628 278,339 27 years
Benin 3,557 144 12,123,200 8,486,240 161 years
Bermuda 684 0 62,278 43,594
Bhutan 850 2 771,608 540,125 739 years
Bolivia 191,090 2,357 11,673,021 8,171,114 9 years
Bosnia 118,717 334 3,280,819 2,296,573 18 years
Botswana 18,630 0 2,351,627 1,646,138
Brazil 8,639,868 64,126 212,559,417 148,791,591 6 years
British Virgin Islands 114 0 30,231 21,161
Brunei 174 0 437,479 306,235
Bulgaria 213,409 482 6,948,445 4,863,911 26 years
Burkina Faso 9,553 139 20,903,273 14,632,291 288 years
Burundi 1,322 69 11,890,784 8,323,548 330 years
Cabo Verde 13,224 85 555,987 389,190 12 years
Cambodia 448 7 16,718,965 11,703,275 4,580 years
Cameroon 28,010 0 26,545,863 18,582,104
Canada 725,495 5,744 37,742,154 26,419,507 12 years
Cayman Islands 381 0 65,722 46,005
Central African Republic 4,974 1 4,829,767 3,380,836 9,253 years
Chad 3,012 35 16,425,864 11,498,104 899 years
Chile 680,740 3,589 19,116,201 13,381,340 9 years
China 88,557 103 1,439,323,776 1,007,526,643 26,797 years
Colombia 1,956,979 17,908 50,882,891 35,618,023 5 years
Comoros 1,933 69 869,601 608,720 24 years
Congo 7,709 0 5,518,087 3,862,660
Costa Rica 187,712 835 5,094,118 3,565,882 11 years
Côte d'Ivoire 25,597 214 26,378,274 18,464,791 236 years
Croatia 226,550 902 4,105,267 2,873,686 8 years
Cuba 19,122 349 11,326,616 7,928,631 62 years
Curaçao 4,535 8 164,093 114,865 38 years
Cyprus 29,472 178 1,207,359 845,151 12 years
Czechia 909,197 9,600 10,708,981 7,496,286 23 months
Denmark 191,505 886 5,792,202 4,054,541 12 years
Dominica 113 3 71,986 50,390 45 years
Dominican Republic 198,123 1,532 10,847,910 7,593,537 13 years
DRC 21,302 162 89,561,403 62,692,982 1,060 years
Ecuador 234,315 1,747 17,643,054 12,350,137 19 years
Egypt 158,963 789 102,334,404 71,634,082 248 years
El Salvador 51,437 0 6,486,205 4,540,343
Equatorial Guinea 5,365 0 1,402,985 982,089
Eritrea 1,910 33 3,546,421 2,482,494 205 years
Estonia 38,543 602 1,326,535 928,574 4 years
Ethiopia 132,034 307 114,963,588 80,474,511 717 years
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 35 3 3,480 2,436 26 months
Faroe Islands 652 2 48,863 34,204 46 years
Fiji 55 0 896,445 627,511
Finland 41,166 444 5,540,720 3,878,504 23 years
France 2,965,117 26,784 65,273,511 45,691,457 4 years
French Guiana 15,311 124 298,682 209,077 4 years
French Polynesia 17,697 0 280,908 196,635
Gabon 10,120 101 2,225,734 1,558,013 42 years
Gambia 3,938 0 2,416,668 1,691,667
Georgia 249,934 469 3,989,167 2,792,416 15 years
Germany 2,090,161 18,525 83,783,942 58,648,759 8 years
Ghana 58,431 0 31,072,940 21,751,058
Gibraltar 3,845 52 33,691 23,583 13 months
Greece 149,973 511 10,423,054 7,296,137 38 years
Greenland 30 0 56,770 39,739
Grenada 139 0 112,523 78,766
Guadeloupe 8,980 0 400,124 280,086
Guatemala 151,324 1,047 17,915,568 12,540,897 32 years
Guinea 14,207 0 13,132,795 9,192,956
Guinea-Bissau 2,510 0 1,968,001 1,377,600
Guyana 7,015 65 786,552 550,586 23 years
Haiti 10,963 56 11,402,528 7,981,769 390 years
Holy See (Vatican City State) 27 0 801 560
Honduras 136,068 1,130 9,904,607 6,933,224 16 years
Hong Kong 9,798 77 7,496,981 5,247,886 186 years
Hungary 354,252 976 9,660,351 6,762,245 18 years
Iceland 5,975 5 341,243 238,870 128 years
India 10,611,719 15,277 1,380,004,385 966,003,069 171 years
Indonesia 939,948 12,568 273,523,615 191,466,530 41 years
Iran 1,348,316 6,182 83,992,949 58,795,064 25 years
Iraq 610,598 746 40,222,493 28,155,745 101 years
Ireland 179,324 2,485 4,937,786 3,456,450 44 months
Isle of Man 432 0 85,033 59,523
Israel 575,842 10,213 8,655,535 6,058,874 18 months
Italy 2,414,166 13,571 60,461,826 42,323,278 8 years
Jamaica 14,487 68 2,961,167 2,072,816 83 years
Japan 339,774 5,446 126,476,461 88,533,522 44 years
Jordan 317,405 978 10,203,134 7,142,193 19 years
Kazakhstan 171,232 1,134 18,776,707 13,143,694 31 years
Kenya 99,444 136 53,771,296 37,639,907 756 years
Kuwait 159,264 442 4,270,571 2,989,399 17 years
Kyrgyzstan 83,430 162 6,524,195 4,566,936 76 years
Lao People's Democratic Republic 41 0 7,275,560 5,092,892
Latvia 57,808 1,088 1,886,198 1,320,338 39 months
Lebanon 264,647 4,332 6,825,445 4,777,811 35 months
Lesotho 7,035 17 2,142,249 1,499,574 240 years
Liberia 1,901 3 5,057,681 3,540,376 3,232 years
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 111,124 659 6,871,292 4,809,904 19 years
Liechtenstein 2,405 7 38,128 26,689 9 years
Lithuania 172,545 1,717 2,722,289 1,905,602 34 months
Luxembourg 49,204 229 625,978 438,184 4 years
Macao 46 0 649,335 454,534
Macedonia 89,463 71 2,083,374 1,458,361 53 years
Madagascar 18,301 0 27,691,018 19,383,712
Malawi 14,851 971 19,129,952 13,390,966 37 years
Malaysia 169,379 4,008 32,365,999 22,656,199 15 years
Maldives 14,712 79 540,544 378,380 12 years
Mali 7,897 17 20,250,833 14,175,583 2,283 years
Malta 16,129 187 441,543 309,080 4 years
Marshall Islands 4 0 59,190 41,433
Martinique 6,327 64 375,265 262,685 11 years
Mauritania 16,212 65 4,649,658 3,254,760 136 years
Mauritius 556 0 1,271,768 890,237
Mayotte 6,981 63 272,815 190,970 8 years
Mexico 1,668,396 18,894 128,932,753 90,252,927 12 years
Micronesia 1 0 115,023 80,516
Moldova 154,118 612 4,033,963 2,823,774 12 years
Monaco 1,262 22 39,242 27,469 40 months
Mongolia 1,568 32 3,278,290 2,294,803 196 years
Montenegro 56,579 351 628,066 439,646 37 months
Montserrat 13 0 4,992 3,494
Morocco 462,542 1,152 36,910,560 25,837,392 60 years
Mozambique 29,396 1,126 31,255,435 21,878,804 53 years
Myanmar 135,721 478 54,409,800 38,086,860 217 years
Namibia 31,253 258 2,540,905 1,778,633 18 years
Nepal 268,310 318 29,136,808 20,395,765 174 years
Netherlands 927,110 5,530 17,134,872 11,994,410 5 years
New Caledonia 44 0 285,498 199,848
New Zealand 2,267 5 4,822,233 3,375,563 1,848 years
Nicaragua 6,204 0 6,624,554 4,637,187
Niger 4,249 24 24,206,644 16,944,650 1,933 years
Nigeria 114,691 1,386 206,139,589 144,297,712 285 years
Norway 59,887 431 5,421,241 3,794,868 23 years
Oman 132,317 171 5,106,626 3,574,638 55 years
Pakistan 524,783 1,772 220,892,340 154,624,638 238 years
Palestine 153,590 497 5,101,414 3,570,989 19 years
Panama 303,777 2,243 4,314,767 3,020,336 41 months
Papua New Guinea 835 1 8,947,024 6,262,916 17,157 years
Paraguay 124,447 1,088 7,132,538 4,992,776 12 years
Peru 1,078,675 5,461 32,971,854 23,080,297 11 years
Philippines 505,934 1,857 109,581,078 76,706,754 112 years
Poland 1,450,603 6,775 37,846,611 26,492,627 10 years
Portugal 581,605 14,647 10,196,709 7,137,696 15 months
Qatar 148,000 271 2,881,053 2,016,737 19 years
Réunion 9,584 62 895,312 626,718 27 years
Romania 700,898 3,000 19,237,691 13,466,383 11 years
Russia 3,633,952 21,152 145,934,462 102,154,123 12 years
Rwanda 11,860 312 12,952,218 9,066,552 79 years
S. Korea 73,518 403 51,269,185 35,888,429 243 years
Saint Kitts and Nevis 35 0 53,199 37,239
Saint Lucia 713 57 183,627 128,538 6 years
Saint Martin 1,146 70 38,666 27,066 12 months
Saint Pierre Miquelon 16 0 5,794 4,055
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 602 0 110,940 77,658
Samoa 2 0 198,414 138,889
San Marino 2,815 12 33,931 23,751 4 years
Sao Tome and Principe 1,170 19 219,159 153,411 22 years
Saudi Arabia 365,563 238 34,813,871 24,369,709 277 years
Senegal 23,642 250 16,743,927 11,720,748 128 years
Serbia 377,445 1,646 8,737,371 6,116,159 9 years
Seychelles 844 98 98,347 68,842 23 months
Sierra Leone 3,030 0 7,976,983 5,583,888
Singapore 59,197 40 5,850,342 4,095,239 277 years
Sint Maarten 1,703 26 42,876 30,013 36 months
Slovakia 228,778 2,484 5,459,642 3,821,749 4 years
Slovenia 152,851 1,714 2,078,938 1,455,256 26 months
Solomon Islands 17 0 686,884 480,818
Somalia 4,744 0 15,893,222 11,125,255
South Africa 1,369,426 12,710 59,308,690 41,516,083 8 years
South Sudan 3,773 11 11,193,725 7,835,607 1,950 years
Spain 2,412,318 41,576 46,754,778 32,728,344 24 months
Sri Lanka 55,189 769 21,413,249 14,989,274 53 years
St. Barth 300 49 9,877 6,913 4 months
Sudan 26,279 0 43,849,260 30,694,482
Suriname 7,783 74 586,632 410,642 15 years
Swaziland 13,789 346 1,160,164 812,114 6 years
Sweden 537,967 0 10,099,265 7,069,485
Switzerland 504,918 2,727 8,654,622 6,058,235 5 years
Syrian Arab Republic 13,313 89 17,500,658 12,250,460 376 years
Taiwan 870 2 23,816,775 16,671,742 22,837 years
Tajikistan 13,308 0 9,537,645 6,676,351
Tanzania 509 0 59,734,218 41,813,952
Thailand 12,653 59 69,799,978 48,859,984 2,268 years
Timor-Leste 53 1 1,318,445 922,911 2,528 years
Togo 4,459 76 8,278,724 5,795,106 208 years
Trinidad and Tobago 7,430 15 1,399,488 979,641 177 years
Tunisia 188,373 3,890 11,818,619 8,273,033 5 years
Turkey 2,406,216 6,435 84,339,067 59,037,346 24 years
Turks and Caicos Islands 1,125 20 38,717 27,101 43 months
UAE 263,729 3,506 9,890,402 6,923,281 5 years
Uganda 38,628 94 45,741,007 32,018,704 932 years
UK 3,505,754 38,905 67,886,011 47,520,207 38 months
Ukraine 1,172,038 4,383 43,733,762 30,613,633 18 years
Uruguay 34,294 848 3,473,730 2,431,611 7 years
USA 24,998,975 188,426 331,002,651 231,701,855 37 months
Uzbekistan 78,163 72 33,469,203 23,428,442 889 years
Vanuatu 1 0 307,145 215,001
Venezuela 121,691 574 28,435,940 19,905,158 94 years
Vietnam 1,544 4 97,338,579 68,137,005 46,668 years
Wallis and Futuna 4 0 11,239 7,867
Western Sahara 10 0 597,339 418,137
Yemen 2,115 0 29,825,964 20,878,174
Zambia 40,949 1,434 18,383,955 12,868,768 24 years
Zimbabwe 29,408 733 14,862,924 10,404,046 38 years