Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?

The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:

  1. We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
  2. About % of the population will have had the virus.
  3. The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).

In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?

Name Cases New cases yesterday Population Need to be infected Time needed
Afghanistan 36,710 0 38,928,346 27,249,842 ∞
Albania 5,519 123 2,877,797 2,014,457 44 years
Algeria 31,465 515 43,851,044 30,695,730 163 years
Andorra 925 0 77,265 54,085 ∞
Angola 1,199 35 32,866,272 23,006,390 1,800 years
Anguilla 3 0 15,003 10,502 ∞
Antigua and Barbuda 91 0 97,929 68,550 ∞
Argentina 201,919 5,376 45,195,774 31,637,041 16 years
Armenia 39,050 209 2,963,243 2,074,270 26 years
Aruba 122 1 106,766 74,736 204 years
Australia 17,923 641 25,499,884 17,849,918 76 years
Austria 21,304 92 9,006,398 6,304,478 187 years
Azerbaijan 32,443 286 10,139,177 7,097,423 67 years
Bahamas 648 49 393,244 275,270 15 years
Bahrain 41,536 346 1,701,575 1,191,102 9 years
Bangladesh 240,746 886 164,689,383 115,282,568 355 years
Barbados 132 10 287,375 201,162 55 years
Belarus 68,067 121 9,449,323 6,614,526 148 years
Belgium 69,402 651 11,589,623 8,112,736 33 years
Belize 57 9 397,628 278,339 84 years
Benin 1,805 0 12,123,200 8,486,240 ∞
Bermuda 157 1 62,278 43,594 119 years
Bhutan 102 1 771,608 540,125 1,479 years
Bolivia 78,793 2,004 11,673,021 8,171,114 11 years
Bosnia 12,296 420 3,280,819 2,296,573 14 years
Botswana 804 0 2,351,627 1,646,138 ∞
Brazil 2,733,677 24,801 212,559,417 148,791,591 16 years
British Virgin Islands 8 0 30,231 21,161 ∞
Brunei 141 0 437,479 306,235 ∞
Bulgaria 11,955 119 6,948,445 4,863,911 111 years
Burkina Faso 1,143 0 20,903,273 14,632,291 ∞
Burundi 395 0 11,890,784 8,323,548 ∞
Cabo Verde 2,547 67 555,987 389,190 15 years
Cambodia 240 1 16,718,965 11,703,275 32,063 years
Cameroon 17,255 0 26,545,863 18,582,104 ∞
Canada 116,884 285 37,742,154 26,419,507 253 years
Cayman Islands 203 0 65,722 46,005 ∞
Central African Republic 4,614 0 4,829,767 3,380,836 ∞
Chad 936 0 16,425,864 11,498,104 ∞
Chile 359,731 2,073 19,116,201 13,381,340 17 years
China 84,385 49 1,439,323,776 1,007,526,643 56,330 years
Colombia 317,651 11,470 50,882,891 35,618,023 8 years
Comoros 386 0 869,601 608,720 ∞
Congo 3,200 0 5,518,087 3,862,660 ∞
Costa Rica 18,975 788 5,094,118 3,565,882 12 years
Côte d'Ivoire 16,182 73 26,378,274 18,464,791 692 years
Croatia 5,260 36 4,105,267 2,873,686 218 years
Cuba 2,646 13 11,326,616 7,928,631 1,670 years
Curaçao 29 0 164,093 114,865 ∞
Cyprus 1,150 26 1,207,359 845,151 88 years
Czechia 16,800 101 10,708,981 7,496,286 203 years
Denmark 13,789 0 5,792,202 4,054,541 ∞
Dominica 18 0 71,986 50,390 ∞
Dominican Republic 72,243 828 10,847,910 7,593,537 24 years
DRC 9,115 31 89,561,403 62,692,982 5,540 years
Ecuador 86,524 292 17,643,054 12,350,137 115 years
Egypt 94,483 167 102,334,404 71,634,082 1,174 years
El Salvador 17,448 398 6,486,205 4,540,343 31 years
Equatorial Guinea 4,821 0 1,402,985 982,089 ∞
Eritrea 279 0 3,546,421 2,482,494 ∞
Estonia 2,079 7 1,326,535 928,574 362 years
Ethiopia 18,706 707 114,963,588 80,474,511 311 years
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) 13 0 3,480 2,436 ∞
Faroe Islands 225 0 48,863 34,204 ∞
Fiji 27 0 896,445 627,511 ∞
Finland 7,453 10 5,540,720 3,878,504 1,061 years
France 187,919 0 65,273,511 45,691,457 ∞
French Guiana 7,857 0 298,682 209,077 ∞
French Polynesia 62 0 280,908 196,635 ∞
Gabon 7,531 0 2,225,734 1,558,013 ∞
Gambia 498 0 2,416,668 1,691,667 ∞
Georgia 1,177 6 3,989,167 2,792,416 1,274 years
Germany 211,462 385 83,783,942 58,648,759 416 years
Ghana 37,014 0 31,072,940 21,751,058 ∞
Gibraltar 188 0 33,691 23,583 ∞
Greece 4,662 75 10,423,054 7,296,137 266 years
Greenland 14 0 56,770 39,739 ∞
Grenada 24 0 112,523 78,766 ∞
Guadeloupe 265 0 400,124 280,086 ∞
Guatemala 51,306 327 17,915,568 12,540,897 104 years
Guinea 7,317 9 13,132,795 9,192,956 2,796 years
Guinea-Bissau 1,981 0 1,968,001 1,377,600 ∞
Guyana 474 44 786,552 550,586 34 years
Haiti 7,468 44 11,402,528 7,981,769 496 years
Holy See (Vatican City State) 12 0 801 560 ∞
Honduras 42,685 671 9,904,607 6,933,224 28 years
Hong Kong 3,512 115 7,496,981 5,247,886 124 years
Hungary 4,535 9 9,660,351 6,762,245 2,057 years
Iceland 1,907 14 341,243 238,870 46 years
India 1,804,702 52,783 1,380,004,385 966,003,069 50 years
Indonesia 111,455 1,519 273,523,615 191,466,530 345 years
Iran 309,437 2,685 83,992,949 58,795,064 59 years
Iraq 129,151 2,447 40,222,493 28,155,745 31 years
Ireland 26,162 53 4,937,786 3,456,450 177 years
Isle of Man 336 0 85,033 59,523 ∞
Israel 72,815 597 8,655,535 6,058,874 27 years
Italy 248,070 238 60,461,826 42,323,278 485 years
Jamaica 883 5 2,961,167 2,072,816 1,135 years
Japan 36,689 853 126,476,461 88,533,522 284 years
Jordan 1,213 5 10,203,134 7,142,193 3,913 years
Kazakhstan 91,593 1,226 18,776,707 13,143,694 29 years
Kenya 22,053 690 53,771,296 37,639,907 149 years
Kuwait 67,911 463 4,270,571 2,989,399 17 years
Kyrgyzstan 36,719 420 6,524,195 4,566,936 29 years
Lao People's Democratic Republic 20 0 7,275,560 5,092,892 ∞
Latvia 1,243 5 1,886,198 1,320,338 722 years
Lebanon 4,885 155 6,825,445 4,777,811 84 years
Lesotho 718 16 2,142,249 1,499,574 256 years
Liberia 1,207 18 5,057,681 3,540,376 538 years
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 3,837 146 6,871,292 4,809,904 90 years
Liechtenstein 89 1 38,128 26,689 72 years
Lithuania 2,110 17 2,722,289 1,905,602 306 years
Luxembourg 6,855 62 625,978 438,184 19 years
Macao 46 0 649,335 454,534 ∞
Macedonia 11,054 163 2,083,374 1,458,361 24 years
Madagascar 11,528 255 27,691,018 19,383,712 208 years
Malawi 4,231 45 19,129,952 13,390,966 815 years
Malaysia 8,999 14 32,365,999 22,656,199 4,432 years
Maldives 4,164 215 540,544 378,380 4 years
Mali 2,541 6 20,250,833 14,175,583 6,472 years
Malta 860 15 441,543 309,080 56 years
Martinique 269 0 375,265 262,685 ∞
Mauritania 6,323 4 4,649,658 3,254,760 2,226 years
Mauritius 344 0 1,271,768 890,237 ∞
Mayotte 2,962 0 272,815 190,970 ∞
Mexico 434,193 9,556 128,932,753 90,252,927 25 years
Moldova 25,362 249 4,033,963 2,823,774 30 years
Monaco 120 0 39,242 27,469 ∞
Mongolia 293 2 3,278,290 2,294,803 3,143 years
Montenegro 3,258 60 628,066 439,646 19 years
Montserrat 13 0 4,992 3,494 ∞
Morocco 25,537 522 36,910,560 25,837,392 135 years
Mozambique 1,946 39 31,255,435 21,878,804 1,536 years
Myanmar 353 0 54,409,800 38,086,860 ∞
Namibia 2,294 70 2,540,905 1,778,633 69 years
Nepal 20,332 246 29,136,808 20,395,765 226 years
Netherlands 55,098 366 17,134,872 11,994,410 89 years
New Caledonia 22 0 285,498 199,848 ∞
New Zealand 1,565 3 4,822,233 3,375,563 3,081 years
Nicaragua 3,672 0 6,624,554 4,637,187 ∞
Niger 1,147 11 24,206,644 16,944,650 4,220 years
Nigeria 43,841 304 206,139,589 144,297,712 1,300 years
Norway 9,268 15 5,421,241 3,794,868 691 years
Oman 79,159 0 5,106,626 3,574,638 ∞
Pakistan 279,698 552 220,892,340 154,624,638 766 years
Palestine 12,297 137 5,101,414 3,570,989 71 years
Panama 67,453 1,070 4,314,767 3,020,336 7 years
Papua New Guinea 110 19 8,947,024 6,262,916 903 years
Paraguay 5,644 159 7,132,538 4,992,776 85 years
Peru 428,850 6,667 32,971,854 23,080,297 9 years
Philippines 103,104 4,951 109,581,078 76,706,754 42 years
Poland 46,894 548 37,846,611 26,492,627 132 years
Portugal 51,463 153 10,196,709 7,137,696 127 years
Qatar 111,107 196 2,881,053 2,016,737 27 years
Réunion 667 3 895,312 626,718 571 years
Romania 53,186 1,075 19,237,691 13,466,383 34 years
Russia 850,870 5,427 145,934,462 102,154,123 51 years
Rwanda 2,062 20 12,952,218 9,066,552 1,241 years
S. Korea 14,366 30 51,269,185 35,888,429 3,276 years
Saint Kitts and Nevis 17 0 53,199 37,239 ∞
Saint Lucia 25 0 183,627 128,538 ∞
Saint Martin 53 0 38,666 27,066 ∞
Saint Pierre Miquelon 4 0 5,794 4,055 ∞
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 55 1 110,940 77,658 212 years
San Marino 699 0 33,931 23,751 ∞
Sao Tome and Principe 874 0 219,159 153,411 ∞
Saudi Arabia 278,835 1,357 34,813,871 24,369,709 48 years
Senegal 10,344 60 16,743,927 11,720,748 534 years
Serbia 26,193 311 8,737,371 6,116,159 53 years
Seychelles 114 0 98,347 68,842 ∞
Sierra Leone 1,843 20 7,976,983 5,583,888 764 years
Singapore 52,825 313 5,850,342 4,095,239 35 years
Sint Maarten 146 18 42,876 30,013 4 years
Slovakia 2,344 7 5,459,642 3,821,749 1,495 years
Slovenia 2,180 9 2,078,938 1,455,256 442 years
Somalia 3,220 8 15,893,222 11,125,255 3,809 years
South Africa 511,485 8,195 59,308,690 41,516,083 13 years
South Sudan 2,429 77 11,193,725 7,835,607 278 years
Spain 335,602 0 46,754,778 32,728,344 ∞
Sri Lanka 2,823 8 21,413,249 14,989,274 5,132 years
St. Barth 9 1 9,877 6,913 18 years
Sudan 11,738 0 43,849,260 30,694,482 ∞
Suriname 1,849 89 586,632 410,642 12 years
Swaziland 2,775 69 1,160,164 812,114 32 years
Sweden 80,422 0 10,099,265 7,069,485 ∞
Switzerland 35,550 138 8,654,622 6,058,235 119 years
Syrian Arab Republic 809 29 17,500,658 12,250,460 1,157 years
Taiwan 475 1 23,816,775 16,671,742 45,675 years
Tajikistan 7,495 44 9,537,645 6,676,351 415 years
Tanzania 509 0 59,734,218 41,813,952 ∞
Thailand 3,317 5 69,799,978 48,859,984 26,771 years
Timor-Leste 24 0 1,318,445 922,911 ∞
Togo 961 3 8,278,724 5,795,106 5,291 years
Trinidad and Tobago 182 9 1,399,488 979,641 298 years
Tunisia 1,561 9 11,818,619 8,273,033 2,518 years
Turkey 232,856 987 84,339,067 59,037,346 163 years
Turks and Caicos Islands 114 0 38,717 27,101 ∞
UAE 60,999 239 9,890,402 6,923,281 78 years
Uganda 1,182 6 45,741,007 32,018,704 14,620 years
UK 304,695 743 67,886,011 47,520,207 174 years
Ukraine 72,168 1,112 43,733,762 30,613,633 75 years
Uruguay 1,286 8 3,473,730 2,431,611 832 years
USA 4,813,647 49,038 331,002,651 231,701,855 12 years
Uzbekistan 25,336 553 33,469,203 23,428,442 115 years
Venezuela 20,206 763 28,435,940 19,905,158 71 years
Vietnam 620 30 97,338,579 68,137,005 6,222 years
Western Sahara 10 0 597,339 418,137 ∞
Yemen 1,734 4 29,825,964 20,878,174 14,299 years
Zambia 6,347 119 18,383,955 12,868,768 296 years
Zimbabwe 3,921 262 14,862,924 10,404,046 108 years