Coronavirus: How long do we need to stay in quarantine?
The idea of quarantine is not to saturate our health systems, so not everybody should go to the hospital at the same time. On the other hand if we have to wait for herd immunity, which means enough people will have had the virus, so that the desease can not really spread any more (this is under the assumption that former patients will be immune). So, quarantine will be necessary until one of the following is true:
- We have a cure and/or a vaccine for SARS-COV-2.
- About % of the population will have had the virus.
- The virus disappears or mutates into some harmless form (the opposite could also happen).
In this model we assume the bad case (2.) where we need to wait in quarantine until the corona virus has spread enough. How long would that actually be?
Name | Cases | New cases yesterday | Population | Need to be infected | Time needed | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Afghanistan | 57,612 | 78 | 38,928,346 | 27,249,842 | 955 years | |
Albania | 129,128 | 169 | 2,877,797 | 2,014,457 | 31 years | |
Algeria | 119,142 | 167 | 43,851,044 | 30,695,730 | 502 years | |
Andorra | 12,641 | 0 | 77,265 | 54,085 | ∞ | |
Angola | 23,951 | 110 | 32,866,272 | 23,006,390 | 572 years | |
Anguilla | 25 | 0 | 15,003 | 10,502 | ∞ | |
Antigua and Barbuda | 1,209 | 8 | 97,929 | 68,550 | 23 years | |
Argentina | 2,629,156 | 24,999 | 45,195,774 | 31,637,041 | 39 months | |
Armenia | 206,142 | 1,014 | 2,963,243 | 2,074,270 | 5 years | |
Aruba | 10,219 | 60 | 106,766 | 74,736 | 37 months | |
Australia | 29,469 | 27 | 25,499,884 | 17,849,918 | 1,809 years | |
Austria | 586,883 | 2,678 | 9,006,398 | 6,304,478 | 6 years | |
Azerbaijan | 294,211 | 2,317 | 10,139,177 | 7,097,423 | 8 years | |
Bahamas | 9,505 | 0 | 393,244 | 275,270 | ∞ | |
Bahrain | 160,934 | 970 | 1,701,575 | 1,191,102 | 37 months | |
Bangladesh | 707,362 | 4,192 | 164,689,383 | 115,282,568 | 75 years | |
Barbados | 3,753 | 9 | 287,375 | 201,162 | 60 years | |
Belarus | 340,023 | 1,222 | 9,449,323 | 6,614,526 | 14 years | |
Belgium | 935,316 | 4,713 | 11,589,623 | 8,112,736 | 4 years | |
Belize | 12,529 | 7 | 397,628 | 278,339 | 105 years | |
Benin | 7,611 | 0 | 12,123,200 | 8,486,240 | ∞ | |
Bermuda | 2,023 | 88 | 62,278 | 43,594 | 15 months | |
Bhutan | 934 | 5 | 771,608 | 540,125 | 295 years | |
Bolivia | 285,291 | 1,108 | 11,673,021 | 8,171,114 | 19 years | |
Bosnia | 187,715 | 1,343 | 3,280,819 | 2,296,573 | 4 years | |
Botswana | 44,075 | 631 | 2,351,627 | 1,646,138 | 7 years | |
Brazil | 13,758,093 | 80,529 | 212,559,417 | 148,791,591 | 4 years | |
British Virgin Islands | 187 | 9 | 30,231 | 21,161 | 6 years | |
Brunei | 221 | 0 | 437,479 | 306,235 | ∞ | |
Bulgaria | 382,761 | 2,185 | 6,948,445 | 4,863,911 | 5 years | |
Burkina Faso | 13,064 | 14 | 20,903,273 | 14,632,291 | 2,861 years | |
Burundi | 3,424 | 91 | 11,890,784 | 8,323,548 | 250 years | |
Cabo Verde | 19,780 | 255 | 555,987 | 389,190 | 4 years | |
Cambodia | 5,218 | 344 | 16,718,965 | 11,703,275 | 93 years | |
Cameroon | 61,731 | 0 | 26,545,863 | 18,582,104 | ∞ | |
Canada | 1,096,716 | 9,564 | 37,742,154 | 26,419,507 | 7 years | |
Cayman Islands | 523 | 0 | 65,722 | 46,005 | ∞ | |
Central African Republic | 5,682 | 0 | 4,829,767 | 3,380,836 | ∞ | |
Chad | 4,673 | 11 | 16,425,864 | 11,498,104 | 2,862 years | |
Chile | 1,101,698 | 7,431 | 19,116,201 | 13,381,340 | 4 years | |
China | 90,457 | 10 | 1,439,323,776 | 1,007,526,643 | 276,017 years | |
Colombia | 2,602,719 | 16,918 | 50,882,891 | 35,618,023 | 5 years | |
Comoros | 3,809 | 6 | 869,601 | 608,720 | 276 years | |
Congo | 10,084 | 0 | 5,518,087 | 3,862,660 | ∞ | |
Costa Rica | 227,533 | 1,121 | 5,094,118 | 3,565,882 | 8 years | |
Côte d'Ivoire | 45,444 | 56 | 26,378,274 | 18,464,791 | 901 years | |
Croatia | 300,900 | 2,927 | 4,105,267 | 2,873,686 | 30 months | |
Cuba | 90,408 | 1,004 | 11,326,616 | 7,928,631 | 21 years | |
Curaçao | 11,674 | 93 | 164,093 | 114,865 | 38 months | |
Cyprus | 53,944 | 690 | 1,207,359 | 845,151 | 39 months | |
Czechia | 1,593,865 | 3,710 | 10,708,981 | 7,496,286 | 4 years | |
Denmark | 240,330 | 798 | 5,792,202 | 4,054,541 | 13 years | |
Dominica | 165 | 0 | 71,986 | 50,390 | ∞ | |
Dominican Republic | 259,639 | 379 | 10,847,910 | 7,593,537 | 53 years | |
DRC | 28,769 | 55 | 89,561,403 | 62,692,982 | 3,121 years | |
Ecuador | 355,431 | 4,892 | 17,643,054 | 12,350,137 | 6 years | |
Egypt | 213,798 | 837 | 102,334,404 | 71,634,082 | 233 years | |
El Salvador | 67,099 | 283 | 6,486,205 | 4,540,343 | 43 years | |
Equatorial Guinea | 7,259 | 0 | 1,402,985 | 982,089 | ∞ | |
Eritrea | 3,486 | 7 | 3,546,421 | 2,482,494 | 970 years | |
Estonia | 116,200 | 572 | 1,326,535 | 928,574 | 4 years | |
Ethiopia | 236,554 | 2,149 | 114,963,588 | 80,474,511 | 102 years | |
Falkland Islands (Malvinas) | 62 | 0 | 3,480 | 2,436 | ∞ | |
Faroe Islands | 662 | 0 | 48,863 | 34,204 | ∞ | |
Fiji | 68 | 0 | 896,445 | 627,511 | ∞ | |
Finland | 83,253 | 289 | 5,540,720 | 3,878,504 | 36 years | |
France | 5,187,879 | 38,045 | 65,273,511 | 45,691,457 | 36 months | |
French Guiana | 17,965 | 82 | 298,682 | 209,077 | 6 years | |
French Polynesia | 18,680 | 0 | 280,908 | 196,635 | ∞ | |
Gabon | 21,566 | 0 | 2,225,734 | 1,558,013 | ∞ | |
Gambia | 5,694 | 12 | 2,416,668 | 1,691,667 | 385 years | |
Georgia | 292,244 | 1,030 | 3,989,167 | 2,792,416 | 6 years | |
Germany | 3,095,016 | 30,634 | 83,783,942 | 58,648,759 | 5 years | |
Ghana | 91,545 | 68 | 31,072,940 | 21,751,058 | 873 years | |
Gibraltar | 4,290 | 0 | 33,691 | 23,583 | ∞ | |
Greece | 308,006 | 3,822 | 10,423,054 | 7,296,137 | 5 years | |
Greenland | 31 | 0 | 56,770 | 39,739 | ∞ | |
Grenada | 155 | 0 | 112,523 | 78,766 | ∞ | |
Guadeloupe | 12,717 | 0 | 400,124 | 280,086 | ∞ | |
Guatemala | 208,694 | 1,567 | 17,915,568 | 12,540,897 | 21 years | |
Guinea | 21,299 | 0 | 13,132,795 | 9,192,956 | ∞ | |
Guinea-Bissau | 3,706 | 12 | 1,968,001 | 1,377,600 | 313 years | |
Guyana | 11,527 | 153 | 786,552 | 550,586 | 9 years | |
Haiti | 12,876 | 19 | 11,402,528 | 7,981,769 | 1,149 years | |
Holy See (Vatican City State) | 27 | 0 | 801 | 560 | ∞ | |
Honduras | 198,214 | 1,510 | 9,904,607 | 6,933,224 | 12 years | |
Hong Kong | 11,619 | 6 | 7,496,981 | 5,247,886 | 2,392 years | |
Hungary | 736,982 | 5,307 | 9,660,351 | 6,762,245 | 39 months | |
Iceland | 6,279 | 4 | 341,243 | 238,870 | 160 years | |
India | 14,287,740 | 216,850 | 1,380,004,385 | 966,003,069 | 12 years | |
Indonesia | 1,589,359 | 6,177 | 273,523,615 | 191,466,530 | 84 years | |
Iran | 2,168,872 | 25,078 | 83,992,949 | 58,795,064 | 6 years | |
Iraq | 956,860 | 7,810 | 40,222,493 | 28,155,745 | 9 years | |
Ireland | 242,402 | 297 | 4,937,786 | 3,456,450 | 30 years | |
Isle of Man | 1,575 | 0 | 85,033 | 59,523 | ∞ | |
Israel | 836,706 | 202 | 8,655,535 | 6,058,874 | 74 years | |
Italy | 3,826,156 | 16,974 | 60,461,826 | 42,323,278 | 6 years | |
Jamaica | 43,240 | 186 | 2,961,167 | 2,072,816 | 30 years | |
Japan | 516,121 | 3,952 | 126,476,461 | 88,533,522 | 61 years | |
Jordan | 679,138 | 2,963 | 10,203,134 | 7,142,193 | 6 years | |
Kazakhstan | 278,695 | 2,641 | 18,776,707 | 13,143,694 | 13 years | |
Kenya | 149,219 | 1,091 | 53,771,296 | 37,639,907 | 94 years | |
Kuwait | 253,066 | 1,391 | 4,270,571 | 2,989,399 | 5 years | |
Kyrgyzstan | 91,144 | 305 | 6,524,195 | 4,566,936 | 40 years | |
Lao People's Democratic Republic | 53 | 0 | 7,275,560 | 5,092,892 | ∞ | |
Latvia | 109,731 | 643 | 1,886,198 | 1,320,338 | 5 years | |
Lebanon | 504,800 | 2,501 | 6,825,445 | 4,777,811 | 4 years | |
Lesotho | 10,709 | 0 | 2,142,249 | 1,499,574 | ∞ | |
Liberia | 2,042 | 0 | 5,057,681 | 3,540,376 | ∞ | |
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya | 170,558 | 513 | 6,871,292 | 4,809,904 | 25 years | |
Liechtenstein | 2,780 | 10 | 38,128 | 26,689 | 6 years | |
Lithuania | 230,513 | 1,219 | 2,722,289 | 1,905,602 | 47 months | |
Luxembourg | 64,549 | 215 | 625,978 | 438,184 | 5 years | |
Macao | 49 | 0 | 649,335 | 454,534 | ∞ | |
Macedonia | 145,001 | 890 | 2,083,374 | 1,458,361 | 4 years | |
Madagascar | 30,207 | 859 | 27,691,018 | 19,383,712 | 61 years | |
Malawi | 33,902 | 11 | 19,129,952 | 13,390,966 | 3,329 years | |
Malaysia | 367,977 | 2,148 | 32,365,999 | 22,656,199 | 28 years | |
Maldives | 25,939 | 95 | 540,544 | 378,380 | 10 years | |
Mali | 12,706 | 239 | 20,250,833 | 14,175,583 | 162 years | |
Malta | 29,833 | 55 | 441,543 | 309,080 | 14 years | |
Marshall Islands | 4 | 0 | 59,190 | 41,433 | ∞ | |
Martinique | 9,890 | 0 | 375,265 | 262,685 | ∞ | |
Mauritania | 18,072 | 6 | 4,649,658 | 3,254,760 | 1,480 years | |
Mauritius | 1,202 | 1 | 1,271,768 | 890,237 | 2,436 years | |
Mayotte | 19,757 | 0 | 272,815 | 190,970 | ∞ | |
Mexico | 2,291,246 | 5,113 | 128,932,753 | 90,252,927 | 47 years | |
Micronesia | 1 | 0 | 115,023 | 80,516 | ∞ | |
Moldova | 244,177 | 812 | 4,033,963 | 2,823,774 | 8 years | |
Monaco | 2,387 | 3 | 39,242 | 27,469 | 23 years | |
Mongolia | 18,565 | 742 | 3,278,290 | 2,294,803 | 8 years | |
Montenegro | 95,042 | 183 | 628,066 | 439,646 | 5 years | |
Montserrat | 20 | 0 | 4,992 | 3,494 | ∞ | |
Morocco | 504,260 | 596 | 36,910,560 | 25,837,392 | 117 years | |
Mozambique | 69,002 | 75 | 31,255,435 | 21,878,804 | 797 years | |
Myanmar | 142,610 | 5 | 54,409,800 | 38,086,860 | 20,814 years | |
Namibia | 46,185 | 134 | 2,540,905 | 1,778,633 | 35 years | |
Nepal | 282,054 | 490 | 29,136,808 | 20,395,765 | 112 years | |
Netherlands | 1,378,145 | 8,734 | 17,134,872 | 11,994,410 | 42 months | |
New Caledonia | 121 | 0 | 285,498 | 199,848 | ∞ | |
New Zealand | 2,591 | 2 | 4,822,233 | 3,375,563 | 4,621 years | |
Nicaragua | 6,778 | 0 | 6,624,554 | 4,637,187 | ∞ | |
Niger | 5,113 | 5 | 24,206,644 | 16,944,650 | 9,282 years | |
Nigeria | 164,080 | 80 | 206,139,589 | 144,297,712 | 4,937 years | |
Norway | 106,224 | 953 | 5,421,241 | 3,794,868 | 10 years | |
Oman | 176,668 | 1,035 | 5,106,626 | 3,574,638 | 9 years | |
Pakistan | 739,818 | 5,395 | 220,892,340 | 154,624,638 | 78 years | |
Palestine | 276,407 | 1,717 | 5,101,414 | 3,570,989 | 5 years | |
Panama | 359,830 | 314 | 4,314,767 | 3,020,336 | 24 years | |
Papua New Guinea | 9,188 | 204 | 8,947,024 | 6,262,916 | 84 years | |
Paraguay | 244,528 | 2,367 | 7,132,538 | 4,992,776 | 5 years | |
Peru | 1,681,063 | 13,326 | 32,971,854 | 23,080,297 | 4 years | |
Philippines | 904,245 | 11,389 | 109,581,078 | 76,706,754 | 18 years | |
Poland | 2,642,241 | 21,129 | 37,846,611 | 26,492,627 | 38 months | |
Portugal | 829,358 | 501 | 10,196,709 | 7,137,696 | 35 years | |
Qatar | 193,952 | 989 | 2,881,053 | 2,016,737 | 5 years | |
Réunion | 18,425 | 0 | 895,312 | 626,718 | ∞ | |
Romania | 1,020,301 | 3,852 | 19,237,691 | 13,466,383 | 9 years | |
Russia | 4,675,153 | 8,944 | 145,934,462 | 102,154,123 | 30 years | |
Rwanda | 23,744 | 72 | 12,952,218 | 9,066,552 | 344 years | |
S. Korea | 112,117 | 698 | 51,269,185 | 35,888,429 | 140 years | |
Saint Kitts and Nevis | 44 | 0 | 53,199 | 37,239 | ∞ | |
Saint Lucia | 4,355 | 0 | 183,627 | 128,538 | ∞ | |
Saint Martin | 1,702 | 9 | 38,666 | 27,066 | 7 years | |
Saint Pierre Miquelon | 24 | 0 | 5,794 | 4,055 | ∞ | |
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | 1,818 | 6 | 110,940 | 77,658 | 34 years | |
Samoa | 3 | 0 | 198,414 | 138,889 | ∞ | |
San Marino | 5,010 | 5 | 33,931 | 23,751 | 11 years | |
Sao Tome and Principe | 2,271 | 2 | 219,159 | 153,411 | 207 years | |
Saudi Arabia | 402,142 | 985 | 34,813,871 | 24,369,709 | 67 years | |
Senegal | 39,606 | 46 | 16,743,927 | 11,720,748 | 696 years | |
Serbia | 654,870 | 2,971 | 8,737,371 | 6,116,159 | 5 years | |
Seychelles | 4,765 | 132 | 98,347 | 68,842 | 16 months | |
Sierra Leone | 4,016 | 3 | 7,976,983 | 5,583,888 | 5,096 years | |
Singapore | 60,735 | 16 | 5,850,342 | 4,095,239 | 693 years | |
Sint Maarten | 2,199 | 3 | 42,876 | 30,013 | 26 years | |
Slovakia | 373,950 | 843 | 5,459,642 | 3,821,749 | 11 years | |
Slovenia | 229,966 | 890 | 2,078,938 | 1,455,256 | 48 months | |
Solomon Islands | 20 | 0 | 686,884 | 480,818 | ∞ | |
Somalia | 12,837 | 0 | 15,893,222 | 11,125,255 | ∞ | |
South Africa | 1,562,931 | 1,372 | 59,308,690 | 41,516,083 | 80 years | |
South Sudan | 10,416 | 11 | 11,193,725 | 7,835,607 | 1,949 years | |
Spain | 3,396,685 | 9,663 | 46,754,778 | 32,728,344 | 8 years | |
Sri Lanka | 95,949 | 212 | 21,413,249 | 14,989,274 | 192 years | |
St. Barth | 934 | 27 | 9,877 | 6,913 | 7 months | |
Sudan | 31,790 | 0 | 43,849,260 | 30,694,482 | ∞ | |
Suriname | 9,458 | 41 | 586,632 | 410,642 | 26 years | |
Swaziland | 18,412 | 5 | 1,160,164 | 812,114 | 437 years | |
Sweden | 892,480 | 0 | 10,099,265 | 7,069,485 | ∞ | |
Switzerland | 630,194 | 2,226 | 8,654,622 | 6,058,235 | 6 years | |
Syrian Arab Republic | 20,713 | 158 | 17,500,658 | 12,250,460 | 212 years | |
Taiwan | 1,068 | 1 | 23,816,775 | 16,671,742 | 45,673 years | |
Tajikistan | 13,308 | 0 | 9,537,645 | 6,676,351 | ∞ | |
Tanzania | 509 | 0 | 59,734,218 | 41,813,952 | ∞ | |
Thailand | 37,453 | 1,543 | 69,799,978 | 48,859,984 | 86 years | |
Timor-Leste | 1,138 | 35 | 1,318,445 | 922,911 | 72 years | |
Togo | 12,214 | 0 | 8,278,724 | 5,795,106 | ∞ | |
Trinidad and Tobago | 8,678 | 82 | 1,399,488 | 979,641 | 32 years | |
Tunisia | 279,376 | 2,649 | 11,818,619 | 8,273,033 | 8 years | |
Turkey | 4,086,957 | 61,400 | 84,339,067 | 59,037,346 | 30 months | |
Turks and Caicos Islands | 2,367 | 7 | 38,717 | 27,101 | 9 years | |
UAE | 491,423 | 1,928 | 9,890,402 | 6,923,281 | 9 years | |
Uganda | 41,263 | 26 | 45,741,007 | 32,018,704 | 3,370 years | |
UK | 4,380,976 | 2,672 | 67,886,011 | 47,520,207 | 45 years | |
Ukraine | 1,903,765 | 16,427 | 43,733,762 | 30,613,633 | 4 years | |
Uruguay | 156,499 | 4,410 | 3,473,730 | 2,431,611 | 17 months | |
USA | 32,224,139 | 74,479 | 331,002,651 | 231,701,855 | 7 years | |
Uzbekistan | 85,730 | 227 | 33,469,203 | 23,428,442 | 282 years | |
Vanuatu | 3 | 0 | 307,145 | 215,001 | ∞ | |
Venezuela | 179,365 | 1,271 | 28,435,940 | 19,905,158 | 42 years | |
Vietnam | 2,758 | 25 | 97,338,579 | 68,137,005 | 7,466 years | |
Wallis and Futuna | 437 | 0 | 11,239 | 7,867 | ∞ | |
Western Sahara | 10 | 0 | 597,339 | 418,137 | ∞ | |
Yemen | 5,657 | 75 | 29,825,964 | 20,878,174 | 762 years | |
Zambia | 90,532 | 143 | 18,383,955 | 12,868,768 | 245 years | |
Zimbabwe | 37,422 | 53 | 14,862,924 | 10,404,046 | 536 years |