This is just a thought experiment as I was asking myself how long would the quarantine because of the corana virus need to last. I really hope my assunmptions are wrong, you can write me to el at softwarerero dot com.
The assumption is that 70% of the population need to be infected to get back to normal, btw. you can change the necessary infection rate and will see the effect directly. So from 70% of the population we subtract the already infected cases and devide this by the cases infected throughout the last day (yesterday). So, assuming that the infection rate stays linear thanks to the quarantine we get to the number of days left in quarantine. We just display this as years, months or weeks if there are many days left.
Many countries have a non linear growth rate of infections, so there our calculation leads to numbers that are too high, but other countries like mine have a linear infection rate due to few cases and strict quarantine, a higher infection rate might be diserable as long as the health system is capable of absorb the cases.
The data about COVID-19 cases are from NovelCovid/API .
The country data are from World Population Review.
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